Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 12 February 2009 / Leave a comment

Tobias Gourlay talks us through the best bets on offer in La Liga this weekend including why Atletico Madrid can win again under their new manager. Best bet: back Numancia @ [2.4] to beat Mallorca.

Poor old Javier Aguirre. He gave Atlético Madrid two-and-a-half good seasons and then seven bad games. As Fernando Torres was good enough to point out upon learning of the Mexican's departure from the club at the beginning of the month: he had achieved the objective of qualifying for Europe and was without doubt the best coach Los Colchoneros had had in years. It seems, however, that the current players were distressed by a couple of tactical mistakes in big games - Aguirre left out Simão for the city derby and Kun Agüero against Barcelona and Liverpool - and wanted rid of him.

Certainly, the team was suddenly much improved when beating Recreativo 3-0 last weekend in Abel Resino's first game in charge. Resino had done little to change anything tactically, other than tell the wretched defence to play higher up the field, and the personnel was the same. Aguirre deserved better.

Still, if the players are up for it, a price of [1.75] is more than fair for them to beat Getafe at home on Sunday.

Valencia have featured here quite a bit recently, especially when they have been playing at the Mestalla. Eight of Los Che's last nine home games have produced Over 3.5 Goals.

Los Che's first-choice goalkeeper, Renan, is back in training but is still a few weeks away from returning to the first team. Less good news is that Raúl Albiol and Carlos Marchena, who both played for Spain against England on Wednesday, will be back together in the centre of Valencia's defence. In Albiol's recent absence, Unai Emery had been using midfielders to plug the gap with limited success.

Nonetheless, Valencia conceded seven times in the three home league matches Marchena and Albiol started earlier in the season, which suggests they alone cannot make up for the lack of a truly defensive midfielder. Over 3.5 Goals ([2.78]) remains the recommendation for this weekend's game with Málaga, half of whose 10 away games have paid out similar bets.

A fortnight ago, this column had Mallorca to lose away to Osasuna, one of their most serious relegation rivals. The islanders were most accommodating in doing exactly that and extending their losing streak to eight away games. This weekend they visit Numancia, who replaced Osasuna in the relegation zone after the last round of matches.

Numancia had won three in a row at their Los Pajaritos home before losing to Real Madrid last time out. Three players were added through the transfer window to what had previously been an entirely Spanish squad, but that is not to say Los Rojillos have been spooked into trying to buy their way out of trouble. Lago Junior, an 18-year-old Ivorian striker, has signed for five seasons and will not be expected to do much this time around. After a Slovakian goalkeeper, the third signing is Raúl Bravo, who Leeds fans can be forgiven for thinking is not very good. In fact, he is a competent full-back and should do no harm to his new team's chances of picking up three points on Sunday afternoon.

Much more important than Bravo is José Javier Barkero, the left-footed midfielder who has scored eight league goals in what is surely his best campaign to date. The Basque has scraped together barely 150 first-team appearances in a 13-year career, spending the early part of the decade warming Real Sociedad's bench, but his good form is one of the major reasons why Numancia are good value at [2.40] to beat Mallorca.

A cursory glance at Deportivo La Coruña's recent form reveals they have taken only four points from their last five matches. The Galicians merit further attention, however. Recent away defeats to Barcelona and Real Madrid, who together have won their last 17 league games, are not a helpful guide to their likely performance at home to Osasuna.

Deportivo are W7-D1-L2 at the Riazor this season, having won five of their last six home matches. And Valerón, who made headlines last week for not being outlandishly brilliant, is still fit.

Osasuna are W0-D2-L6 on the road since José Antonio Camacho took charge in mid-October, but managed 1-1 draws away to Sevilla and Villarreal in January. Solid results, it must be admitted, but neither of the Champions League contenders had Deportivo's good home form.