La Liga Preview: Sporting chance to shine

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 10 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Hugo Sánchez is not yet the messiah.

Recommended Bets: Back Sporting Gijón at [2.32] to beat Almería; back the Half-Time Draw at [2.08] in Athletic Bilbao versus Xerez

The Spanish domestic season begins in earnest this weekend. Tobias Gourlay licks his lips in anticipation.

After a week on and then a week off for international matches, La Liga finally settles in for the season this weekend. A fortnight ago, Barcelona comfortably won their first game of the new campaign against Sporting Gijón, just as expected in these parts. Their most obvious (only) rivals, Real Madrid, also won, 3-2 against Deportivo.

Matthew Walton has written an informative article about betting on the two Spanish giants. This column is mulling an Under 2.5 Goals wager at [2.54] on Barça's away game with Getafe, who are unbeaten in 15 matches between the end of last season, pre-season friendlies, and their opening-day thrashing of Racing Santander 4-1. The bet would have paid out in six of Getafe's last seven home matches against the Big Two, and it seems as though some of Pep Guardiola's team have their minds on things other than stuffing the minnows. Both Zlatan Ibrahimović and Maxwell are already talking about Wednesday night's Champions League clash with their old club, Internazionale. If Andrés Iniesta is absent owing to injury again, that price will look big.

On Saturday Real Madrid travel to Barcelona to play the second city's second team, Espanyol. In losing to Athletic Bilbao a couple of weeks ago, the Catalans did not look entirely recovered from the death in the summer of club captain Dani Jarque. They do, however, have a decent record of scoring in seven of their last 10 home games against the Big Two.

Until Pepe and Sergio Ramos return from suspension and injury respectively, Real will look weak in defence. They might well do even when those two are returned, and Manuel Pellegrini won't help things if he continues to play all of Cristiano Ronaldo, Kaká, Karim Benzema and Raúl, none of whom have any interest in helping out Xabi Alonso, Lassana Diarra and the back four. [1.62] for Over 2.5 Goals at Espanyol's new Cornellà-El Prat home will be too tight a price for some, but it should be worth keeping an eye on similar bets in forthcoming Real matches.

Sporting Gijón's next challenge is a little easier: Almería at home. The visitors are managed by Hugo Sánchez, a magnificent player who thinks he will become a magnificent coach. Before fulfilling his self-proclaimed destiny as Real Madrid boss, the Mexican must prove himself in the provinces. After taking over midway through last season, he took the Andalusians up to mid-table, helped by the excellent individual form of now-departed Álvaro Negredo. He did not much improve the team's away form though, losing eight of 11.

Sporting were fun to watch last season, drawing only one league match and keeping just two clean sheets at home. Matches between teams that are expected to struggle are often low-scoring. This one might well be an exception - 13/19 at El Molinón produced three goals or more last season, just like 12 of Almería's away games - and, at [2.02], Over 2.5 Goals is worth thinking about.

Remembering Almería's away record under Sánchez, the Match Outcome market might offer even better value. Manuel Preciado and Sporting are [2.32] to take three points from Sunday's meeting, having won five of their last eight against bottom-half finishers.

Xerez were founded in 1947, but this is their first ever season in the Spanish top-flight. They began with a 2-0 defeat away to Mallorca in which they were shown two red cards. Sunday's visitors to Chapín are Athletic Bilbao, who have been slow starters in recent years, but looked to have benefited from early competitive matches in the Europa League and Spanish Super Cup when beating Espanyol 1-0 in their first league outing of this season.

Athletic are unbeaten on the road against promoted teams for almost four years, going W5-D6-L0 since a 1-0 reverse in Cadiz in 2005. Eight of those games have been all-square at the break (under current boss Joaquín Caparrós the record is W3-D3-L0 with 5/6 level after 45 minutes), which might raise interest in the Half-Time Draw at [2.08] in this weekend's meeting with Xerez. Consider also Athletic -0 on the Asian handicap; they should become available somewhere close to evens.