Jonathan Wilson / Jonathan Wilson / 10 September 2009 / Leave a comment

Excuses abound for hit and miss campaign but, though they stand on the cusp of a World Cup play-off, Croatia's house of cards could come tumbling down at any minute, says Jonathan Wilson.

"For Croatia, this qualification campaign started to unravel at home to Ukraine in June. The two defeats to England, of course, didn't help, but they could have survived that and still been sure of finishing second had they only taken four points from the Ukrainians."

The curious thing for Croatia is that, despite losing 5-1 to England, they came out of last night more likely to qualify to the World Cup than they went in. Ukraine could only draw away to Belarus, which means that, assuming they beat Andorra away in their final game, and that Croatia win in Kazakhstan, Ukraine must beat England in Dnipropetrovsk in their next game to finish second and, probably, secure a play-off place [Croatia are 1.42 to do so; Ukraine 2.2].

At the weekend, there were those in Croatia seriously suggesting England might lie down and let Ukraine win to gain some kind of revenge for the way Croatia eliminated them from Euro 2008. England [7.6 third-favourites to win the World Cup], though, have already gained their revenge twice-over, and emphatically so with 4-1 and 5-1 wins, and besides, such Machiavellianism sits uneasily with the national character. Nor is it likely that Fabio Capello will pick an experimental side in Ukraine; he has little enough time to work with his team anyway - why waste one of the few opportunities he does have?

More relevant is what this campaign has told us about Croatia. For them, this qualification campaign started to unravel at home to Ukraine in June. The two defeats to England, of course, didn't help, but they could have survived that and still been sure of finishing second had they only taken four points from the Ukrainians. They seemed to have done the hard part when they forced a goalless draw in Kharkiv, but at the Maksimir - once such a fortress but now, it seems, merely a source of anxiety - defensive sloppiness undid them and they could only draw 2-2.

Admittedly, Croatia could point out that Ukraine had offered little after Andriy Shevchenko had gone off midway through the first half, that the goal that put them 2-1 up came against the run of play, and that they themselves twice hit the post with the score at 2-2, but that tends to be the way of things with failed qualifications.

There are always knife-edge moments when events could have tipped the other way. What if Jan Tomaszewski hadn't had such a great game at Wembley in 1973? What if Ronald Koeman had been sent off, as he surely should have been, in Rotterdam in 1993? What if Steven Gerrard had converted that volley just after half-time in Moscow two years ago?

This time, though, it is Slaven Bilic who finds himself on the wrong end of misfortune.

Not that he could complain about either of the games against England. Rather they highlighted what was apparent against Ukraine in June: that Croatia have serious defensive deficiencies.

Bilic acknowledged his fears about that area two years ago, pointing out that, almost uniquely among leading sides, Croatia play with five attacking players. In the past he was able to get away with that because he had Niko Kovac operating at the back of the midfield; since the veteran's retirement in January, that position has been the biggest problem, something compounded by the attacking instincts of the left-back Danijel Pranjic.

Genoa's Ivan Juric looked out of his depth against Ukraine, and although Ognjen Vukojevic of Dynamo Kyiv impressed away to Belarus last month, he was over-run at Wembley last night. Although Bilic is seemingly wedded to a front pairing of Eduardo and Ivica Olic, now may be the time to consider a switch to a 4-2-3-1, using an extra holder in front of the back four while still allowing full reign to the playmakers.

Given Darijo Srna could be played at right-back, indeed, they would still have attacking width from full-back. The problem would be getting the balance right at centre-forward. Eduardo is not a natural lone striker, but could perhaps play deeper, off either Mladen Petric or Olic, with Luka Modric on the left, and either Niko Kranjcar or Marijo Mandzukic on the right.

At the very least, Bilic must be considering a Tottenham-style 4-4-2, with Modric swooping on from the left, and Srna perhaps providing balance on the right, alongside two more defensive holding midfielders. Croatian tradition dictates that Modric should play as a central playmaker (for many Croatian fans, if there is no playmaker, there is no football), and perhaps had he played at Wembley, his intelligence might have papered over some of the cracks. The point is though that the cracks are there and must be countered.

Tags: Belarus, Croatia, Danijel Pranjic, Eduardo, England, Maksimir, Ognjen Vukojevic, Slaven Bilic, Ukraine, World Cup 2010