Copa Libertadores Betting: Outsiders offer best value

Jonathan Wilson / Jonathan Wilson / 29 July 2010 / 1 Comments

Rafael Guerrero of Universidad de Chile celebrates after scoring the first goal against Guadalajara

"Universidad de Chile are [1.45] to win the second leg; but the best bet may be the [3.6] on offer for them to win the Libertadores outright."

Joonathan Wilson updates the Copa Libertadores situation after the first legs of the semis and it's an unheralded team that could be the best bet

For Guadalajara, there will always be a "what if?" What if they hadn't moved the first leg of their Copa Libertadores semi-final against Universidad de Chile to the Azteca Stadium in Mexico City in order to attract a larger crowd (and thus bigger gate receipts). Would they now be contemplating a first ever final with confidence, rather than approaching next week's second leg in the gloomy knowledge that they've probably blown it?

It's all very well for their goalkeeper Luis Michel to insist that his side have support from all over the country and that they therefore feel at home anywhere, but the fact remains that it has been home form that has carried Guadalajara this far, and that sacrificing that is probably a bigger blow than losing the centre-forward Javier Hernandez, who has joined Manchester United. Cruz Azul may similarly have switched their semi-final to the Azteca on their run to the Libertadores final in 2001, but they are a team from a suburb of Mexico City, not from a different city altogether.

Having been expelled from the competition during the swine flu panic last year when many South American countries were blocking flights from Mexico, Guadalajara and their fellow Mexicans San Luis were granted an automatic berth in the knockout stage, replacing the two second-placed teams from the group stage with the poorest record.

San Luis went out straightaway to the reigning champions, Estudiantes, but Guadalajara have made the most of the opportunity. In the last-16, a 3-0 home win over Velez Sarsfield was followed by a 2-0 defeat in Buenos Aires. In the quarter-final, a 3-0 home win over Libertad was followed by a 2-0 defeat in Asuncion. Universitad have, admittedly, been better away than at home in the knockouts, recording victories on the road against both Alianza Lima and Flamengo, but if they don't turn things round next week Guadalajara will always wonder what might have been if only they hadn't chased the cash.

On Tuesday, there was no 3-0 home win. Two minutes after half-time Universidad's Argentinian playmaker Walter Montillo drifted in a free-kick. Hector Reynoso cleared with a diving header, but the ball fell for Juan Manuel Olivera, and when he returned the ball to the goalmouth Rafael Olarra headed in. Guadalajara salvaged a lifeline from another set-play four minutes later: Omar Bravo met Alberto Medina's corner with a firm header, and when Miguel Angel Pinto parried, Omar Arellano was on hand to turn in the equaliser. The fact remains, though, that it is Universidad who have the away goal, and given Guadalajara won only three of eight away games during the Mexican clausura, the Chileans are firm favourites to make it through to their first final at the second leg in Santiago next Tuesday. They are [1.45] to win the second leg; but the best bet may be the [3.6] on offer for them to win the Libertadores outright.

The other semi-final is more finely poised. After an indifferent start to the year, Internacional's form has picked up over the past month and after four straight wins in the Brazilian championship, they beat their fellow-Brazilians Sao Paulo 1-0 in the home leg on Wednesday.

The substitute Giuliano got the only goal midway through the second half, following fine build-up play from Andres d'Alessandro and Alecsandro. Sao Paulo's recent form has been rotten, and they have not won in the Brazilian championship since before the break for the World Cup.

The loss of the centre-back Andre Dias to Lazio is probably the most significant in a raft of changes since last season, when they finished third. At the moment, 11 rounds in, Sao Paulo are 15th of 20 in the Brazilian championship and, while relegation is surely not a serious possibility, it does appear that their period of domination is coming to an end following their hat-trick of titles between 2006 and 2008.

One Libertadores in the past decade (in 2005, when they crushed Atletico Paranaense 4-0 at the second leg in the (Morumbi) seems a poor return; this may be their last chance to add a second. Sao Paulo are [1.71] to win the second leg, with Internacional at [2.8].

Comments (1)

1. A. Palmer | 30 July 2010

   When Cruz Azul moved to the Azteca in 2001 the decision was no where near as controversial as Cruz Azul used to play all their league games there in previous to builiding their new stadium. Cruz Azul also play their games in the center of the city, its the Azteca stadium which is out in the suburbs.