Jonathan Wilson / Jonathan Wilson / 13 August 2009 / Leave a comment

With all the talk of a strengthened Bayern Munich under the experienced management of Louis Van Gaal looking a shoo-in for the Bundesliga title, Jonathan Wilson urges us punters to consider the credentials of the defending champions, Wolfsurg.

"It has helped Wolfsburg, of course, that, contrary to expectations,
they have been able not merely to keep their squad intact, but to
strengthen. Grafite agreed a new contract within days of the title
being decided, but perhaps more surprisingly, both of their gifted
Bosnians, Dzeko and Misimovic, have stayed."

The theory said that when your coach announced he was quitting four games before the end of the season, you'd struggle on the run-in. Wolfsburg, having heard they'd be starting the new season without Felix Magath, promptly lost 4-1 to Stuttgart, but then bounced back to score 13 in their final three games of the season and so lift the title. The theory also said that Wolfsburg wouldn't be able to cope without Magath this season, but the way they started the campaign, with a 2-0 win over Stuttgart, suggests that that could be flawed as well (they are [10.0] to retain their title].

Armin Veh, Magath's successor, has established himself quietly, admitting in the run up to the season opener that he was concerned that his side would be found out this season, that everybody knew their essential game plan was to sit deep, and then break quickly, using the passing of Zvjezdan Misimovic, the dribbling of Grafite and the power of Edin Dezko. Most people realised pretty quickly last season that that was how they played and were unable to combat it, but Veh has nonetheless opted to introduce a possession-based close-passing game. That, at least, gives Wolfsburg a second option.

There may, though, be something else at work here. The pattern is well-established that a tough leader picks up an otherwise unremarkable team and drills them so that they become hard to beat, and perhaps even start winning. He then makes way for a more relaxed leader who allows the team greater freedom; they then express themselves and reach greater heights, while at the same time opening the door to their own eventual disintegration.

It happened at Ajax in the seventies when the genial Stefan Kovacs replaced the martinet Rinus Michels. It happened at Liverpool when Bob Paisley replaced Bill Shankly (although they managed to spin out their success for six years after Paisley's departure). It happened even with the England cricket team as Michael Vaughan replaced Nasser Hussain. And it may be that it is happening with Wolfsburg as Veh has replaced the notoriously hard taskmaster Magath.

Although, before we get too carried away, it should be said that their two goals on Friday came only after Stuttgart had been reduced to ten men by injury. Certainly there is little reason for Stuttgart fans to be too concerned by an opening day defeat, particularly given that Pavel Pogrebnyak and Alexander Hleb are still to find their feet after
summer moves. (They are [22.0] for the title).

It has helped Wolfsburg, of course, that, contrary to expectations, they have been able not merely to keep their squad intact, but to strengthen. Grafite agreed a new contract within days of the title being decided, but perhaps more surprisingly, both of their gifted
Bosnians, Dzeko and Misimovic, have stayed.

Only three players have left, with five arriving, among them the rapid Nigerian striker Obafemi Martins from Newcastle, the technically-gifted Algerian midfielder Ali Ziani from Marseille and the Austrian midfielder Thomas Kahlenburg from Auxerre. And if they are stronger now than they were last season when they won the Bundesliga, why shouldn't they do it again?

Part of the reason, of course, is Jurgen Klinsmann, who proved that smiling a lot and talking in quasi-philosophical management-speak doesn't win football matches, particularly not if you insist on using a formation that's 15 years out of date. Bayern Munich under Louis van Gaal will surely be a tougher proposition, even if they were a touch fortunate to get away with a 1-1 away draw against an impressive
Hoffenheim ([30.0] to be champions) on Saturday.

Magath's new team, Schalke 04 ([13.0] for the title]), meanwhile, won 2-1 away at Nurnberg. It is early days yet, of course, but at least the indications are that Bayern Munich will not, as many feared, run away with the title simply because of Van Gaal's presence in the dug-out and the signings of Ivica Olic, Danijel Pranjic and Anatoliy
Tymoshchuk, even if they remain [1.76] favourites.

Bayern are [1.67] to beat Werder Bremen on Saturday, while Wolfsburg are [1.95] to win away to FC Koln. Hoffenheim's difficult start to the season, meanwhile, continues with a trip to Leverkusen, where they are [3.75] to win.

Tags: Bundesliga bets, German footbal odds, Grafite, Louis Van Gaal