Serie A Preview: Onwards and upwards for Roma

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 28 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

On a fascinating matchday in Italy, Dave Farrar previews three top clashes which he believes could yield value.

Roma v Fiorentina

Everywhere you look on this fascinating matchday there seems to be a game of the weekend, but this one at the Olimpico may just have the edge.

Roma have finally found the spark that has been missing from their football all season long, and they've remembered how to defend. That combination means that they've now won four of their last five games, and if it hadn't been for Cicinho's stoppage time own goal in Bologna it would have been five staright wins.

Fiorentina have already lost here once this season, when they were thrashed by Lazio, and it's their away form which has been their real undoing, with four defeats from six, and only wins against an awful Chievo and a crumbling Palermo on their travels. Claudio Prandelli has tried to make Fiorentina hard to beat away from home this season, but it hasn't worked, and their last two games sum them up. A desperate 1-0 defeat at Cagliari followed by a glorious home performance against Udinese.

Punters are still a little unsure of Roma, which is why you can back them at a price very close to evens. We need to stick with a quality side that is playing well, and forget about their start to the season. It's onwards and upwards for Roma, so get with Serie A's form team against the top six side with the worst away record.

Recommendation: Roma to beat Fiorentina at [1.97]

Udinese v Chievo

Udinese have had a difficult time lately, falling to three consecutive defeats, but they were a lot better last week against Fiorentina than they were in that strange loss against Reggina, and in Chievo they're playing the worst team in the division.

Chievo manager Mimmo Di Carlo said last week before the match against Siena that "the season starts here", but unfortunately for him another abject performance and disappointing defeat followed. If the season really did start there, then Chievo are still Serie A's worst team. They haven't won a game since the first day of the season, against Reggina, and they were well beaten away from home by Lecce, Palermo and Cagliari.

Udinese may have looked unconvincing recently, but they are likely to have Toto Di Natale starting here, and he makes them a much better side. I don't usually like backing favourites conceding goals on the Asian Handicap, as so much can potentially go wrong, but Udinese should be more than capable of putting Chievo away, and given that they want a big win to restore confidence, then I think they should be shorter than a [1.9] chance to get a victory by more than a goal.

Recommendation: Udinese -1 on the Asian Handicap against Chievo at [1.9]

Inter v Napoli

After Panathanaikos did me a favour by not only covering the Handicap, but actually winning at San Siro in midweek, I am sorely tempted to tip Napoli to cap a miserable week for Jose Mourinho.

If Edy Reja's side came into this game in better form, then the price of [8.0] would look pretty good, but Napoli's title challenge has been sustained by how well they've done at home, and that took a knock last week when they conceded a 95th minute goal against Cagliari.

Even though Inter have been no better than average this season so far, and have been a dream to oppose on the Asian Handicap, their record, particularly at San Siro, makes more impressive reading than you might imagine. They are unbeaten here in the league this calendar year, and there's every chance that they'll be able to dig out yet another result, albeit by a narrow margin.

Napoli do pose a forward threat, with Marek Hamsyk producing a series of stunning performances which will surely see him at a bigger club within the next season or so. They have only failed to score on two occasions this season, away at Udinese and here against Milan, but in both games they had a man sent off and changed their tactics accordingly.

Inter have only conceded twice at home in the League this season, but those goals were scored by Catania and Bologna, Napoli are a much greater threat, and so if you can get anywhere near [1.9] for Reja's team to score, that might just be a touch of value

Recommendation: Back Napoli to score at Inter at [1.9]