Serie A Betting: Three in three for Pato but big brother Inter will dominate derby

Italian Football / Dan Fitch / 27 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Dan Fitch speaks up for underachieving siblings as he looks ahead to tomorrow's Milan derby.

Those of us with brothers and sisters will know all about sibling rivalry. We all tend to judge ourselves by the standards set by our siblings, possibly because parents are always saying things like "Why can't you be more like your brother? He's managed to get a good job/find a nice girl/stay out of prison."

My own family of three brothers and one sister have managed to avoid the perils of getting too deeply embroiled in sibling rivalry, probably because we're all so collectively committed to underachievement.

I can imagine though what it must be like to have a sibling become wildly successful, whilst you remain in the doldrums. What must it be like to be Paul Ross and know that every job offer you receive is because your employers want someone like Jonathan Ross?

At the San Siro stadium on Sunday warring siblings Inter and AC Milan meet in what will be another passionate encounter. During the nineties and early part of this decade, Milan largely had the measure of their younger sibling. But Inter have had something of a growth spurt in recent years and now look down at the ageing Milan with something approaching disdain. As ever, all the family bickering can be seen via Betfair Live Video.

It's been business as usual since Jose Mourinho took over from Roberto Mancini, with Inter currently sitting atop of Serie A. It was an inspired substitution from Mourinho that kept Inter top of the pile, as they faced Lecce at home in midweek. Inter were struggling to break Lecce down and eventually Mourinho took a gamble and brought on striker Julio Cruz for left back Cristian Chivu and the Argentine scored the winning goal.

AC Milan are a few points off the pace from the top of the table, but are at least becoming more au fait with winning ways. Last weekend they made a mockery of my assertion that Lazio would hold them to a draw, as they spanked the Romans 4-1 at the San Siro. In midweek Milan ground out a 2-1 win at Reggina. Marco Borriello grabbed the opener, only for Reggina to equalise in the second half. The game was eventually won by the third goal in three games from Pato, with a well placed shot from the edge of the area.

Both Ronaldinho and Shevchenko have been on the bench for these last two games, which was always the inevitable conclusion of Carlo Ancelotti being lumbered with a couple of washed up superstars. Shevchenko has at least had plenty of practice at sitting on the sidelines over the last couple of years, but one wonders how long Ronaldinho will stick things out if he's not the centre of attention.

Unfortunately for him, Manchester City can probably do better for themselves now.

Jose Mourinho will be able to emphasise with Ancelotti's predicament, having had Shevchenko come between himself and his position as Chelsea manager. Since taking the reigns at Inter, Mourinho has choose to merely tweak his squad, rather than overhaul it. The most notable signings of the summer have been that of Mancini, Sulley Muntari and Ricardo Quaresma. Inter were perhaps a bit top heavy with destructive rather than creative midfielders and Mourinho will hope that his signings can propel Inter to a serious assault on the Champions League.

This is the competition by which Mourinho will be judged. Inter have won the last two Serie A titles at a canter and to merely win another will not see Mourinho lauded as a great success. But first things first, how will Mourinho cope with his first Milan derby? One thing's for sure. It'll be a bit more of an event than Chelsea v Fulham.

AC Milan won the last Serie A encounter between the two sides, but prior to that Inter had won the previous three matches. It is always tempting to sit on the fence and pick out a draw in a derby match, but the last time that these two sides shared the spoils was in 2004 and they have played nine times since then.

Milan are officially at home, but unsurprisingly this tends not to mean much in this fixture. They can be backed at [3.05], with the draw [3.15] and Inter [2.62]. I think that Inter will assert their sibling dominance and edge a win here.