Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 18 September 2009 / Leave a comment

Dave Farrar talks us through the good and the bad of Serie A being back on UK television as he tackles this weekend's fixtures where two matches provide excellent chances to back "overs".

"It means at least that he can concentrate on his domestic form, furiously trying to prove Lippi wrong. If you go back to last season, it’s been ten games since a Samp home game didn’t produce over 2.5 goals (oddly enough, the opposition then was Atalanta) and I fully expect there to be at least three on Sunday."

NAPOLI v UDINESE

Serie A may be back on UK television, and so over the course of the next few seasons the likes of Fabio Quagliarella may become as well known as Beppe Signori did in the 80s and 90s, but for now a few relative secrets remain, and we can use them to make a profit.

So here's a question for you: if two Premier League teams had played six games between them which had produced 26 goals, would over 2.5 goals be trading at [1.86] when they finally met? A lot of you will feel that there can be no value in betting at odds-on, and I'm no great fan of tipsters who continually put up selections at [1.3], but value is value, and the true price of there being more than 2.5 goals when Napoli meet Udinese early on Saturday evening has to be shorter than it is currently trading on Betfair.

Both sides have shown themselves to be willing to attack from the opening whistle, and with both Donadoni and Marino's sides pretty much at full strength at the weekend, I'll be amazed if the goals don't flow. In fact, Napoli are deprived of Hugo Campagnaro who was sent off in Genoa last week, and his likely replacement, Fabiano Santacroce, is comically error prone. That helps lead to the conclusion that goals will go in at both ends.

Udinese will adopt their usual counterattacking tactics, but Napoli could well play into their hands, and I certainly won't be supporting the home side at [2.04]. There is attacking quality all over the pitch, with Quagliarella extra motivated to prove himself against his old team and Toto Di Natale flying after his hatrick last weekend. I wouldn't put you off going over 3.5 and 4.5 as well, but so as not to get overexcited, I'll stick with over 2.5 at a backable price. If this game doesn't produce at least three goals, I'll be genuinely amazed.

RECOMMENDATION: Back over 2.5 goals in NAPOLI v UDINESE @ [1.86] - BET OF THE WEEK

SAMPDORIA v SIENA

There's a similarly attractive bet to be had in the game at the Luigi Ferraris in Genoa. The last time Sampdoria won their opening three games of the season, Roberto Mancini was a teenager right at the start of his stellar career, and with the two teams from Genova keeping up 100% records, there can be few more exciting places to be right now in the football world.

My feeling is that Genoa are better equipped than Samp to deal with a long term title challenge, but Samp at home are a formidable proposition for any team. As well as tipping Samp to win at Atalanta last week, I was praying that they wouldn't score a hatful of goals as I knew that a low scoring affair would drive up the price of 2.5 goals in this fixture.

Samp obliged on both counts, winning by a goal to nil. They were lucky to do so, though, with their defensive frailties exposed by Atalanta, and only the width of a post got them the win. Siena have shown themselves willing to attack this season , getting three away from home at Chievo, and managing to score against both Milan and Roma before losing.

Marco Giampaolo will go to Samp confident that they can score at least once, and that will leave his team vulnerable to the goal twins, Cassano and Pazzini. I know that I'm sounding like a broken record about these two, but until you've seen them in the flesh you have no idea of how good Cassano in particular is. And one of the great sadnesses of next summer in South Africa is not just the potential absence of Ronaldo, Henry and Gourcuff, but also of Cassano, who Marcello Lippi is certain not to pick.

It means at least that he can concentrate on his domestic form, furiously trying to prove Lippi wrong. If you go back to last season, it's been ten games since a Samp home game didn't produce over 2.5 goals (oddly enough, the opposition then was Atalanta) and I fully expect there to be at least three on Sunday. Any odds against price is an absolute steal.

RECOMMENDATION Back over 2.5 goals in SAMPDORIA v SIENA @ [2.08]

ROMA v FIORENTINA

The first two tips this week will be my big staking bets this week, but the Sunday night game between Roma and Fiorentina also provides a bit of interest.

Firstly, it should be an excellent game to watch with so much quality on the pitch, but I was surprised to see Roma as short as [2.12] to win. They haven't started well, were very lucky to win in Siena last week, and Claudio Ranieri's more conservative tactics don't seem to suit the players.

Fiorentina are an excellent side who often fly under the radar, and with Adrian Mutu fit again, they will be a fearsome proposition for a nervy Roma. La Viola are not just about Mutu either, Stefan Jovetic has looked a real player this season, and Alberto Gilardino can bounce back from his Champions League red card with a key goal here. Fiorentina are tempting at [4.0] to win the game, but they can often be happy with draws away from home, and so I'll recommend a lay of Ranieri's Roma, who have had a day less to prepare for this game after their defeat in Basel on Thursday night.

RECOMMENDATION Lay ROMA at home to FIORENTINA @ [2.14]