Serie A Betting: Roma v Fiorentina

Italian Football / Dan Fitch / 29 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

After being tipped for honours pre-season, these two have so far under-achieved. But Luciano Spalleti's men are improving and could well be about to stretch their unbeaten run to six, says Dan Fitch.

You can never trust advertising. The advertising industry, by it's very nature, is always going to say that something is much better than it actually is. Most people learn this valuable life lesson, around the time that they purchase a set of x-ray glasses from the back of a comic. You'd surely have thought that by 2008, someone would have been able to perfect this technology and put us all out of our misery.

Despite knowing the tricks that advertisers pull and being an avid viewer of the HBO series Mad Men, I still fall foul of their lies from time to time. This Serie A season is a case in point. During the summer I got very excited about writing about Serie A, because this season was being advertised as one in which there would be five teams challenging for the title.

I went into this season thinking that the title race would be contested by Inter Milan, Roma, Juventus, AC Milan and Fiorentina. Experts on Italian football were telling me that this would be the case and like a sucker, I fell for their hype.

How I could have fallen for this, I don't know. Everyone knows that out of five teams, at least one would not live up to expectations this season. As a Spurs fan, I should be more aware of this than most.

As it happens, two expected title chasers have failed to live up to their billing. They are Roma and Fiorentina, who meet on Sunday, in a battle to salvage their respective seasons. As ever, all the action can be seen on Betfair Live Video; the TV station that rejects both advertising and the license fee.

Roma have staged something of a recovery in recent weeks and are slowly crawling up the league. Luciano Spalletti's side are now unbeaten in five games, which has included wins over Chelsea and arch rivals Lazio.

Though still in fifteenth place in Serie A, a Roma win on Sunday could leave them just seven points off fourth, with a game in hand. However, fourth spot is now the best that Roma can realistically hope for, which is a disappointment, considering how close they came to the league title last season.

No such mathematics are needed to give Roma's Champions League campaign a positive spin, with the Giallorossi currently topping Group A ahead of Chelsea. In midweek, Roma won 3-1 at CFR Cluj, avenging their earlier shock defeat to the Romanians. Matteo Brighi scored twice and Francesco Totti converted brilliantly from a free kick to give Roma the win. Totti has now scored three goals from the last four games.

Fiorentina fared less well in the Champions League this week, going down 2-1 to Lyon. This means that the Viola were eliminated from the Champions League and even worse than that, may have to play in the UEFA Cup, if they finish in third place.

Fiorentina's problem this season has been inconsistency and poor away form. They currently sit just seven points from the top of the table, but they won't be gaining ground on Inter until they start performing every week.

The Viola have failed to win two games in succession since October. Though unbeaten at home in Serie A, Fiorentina have lost 4 times on the road, which includes recent losses at Cagliari and Siena.

Fiorentina have a particularly poor record when travelling to Roma. The last time they recorded a victory at the Stadio Olimpico was back in 1992, when a certain Gabriel Batistuta scored twice. Since that day, the sides have met 16 times, with the large majority having been won by the home side.

On the injury front, Roma will be without Alberto Aquilani, who picked up an injury in training and should be out for a couple of weeks. Fiorentina have more losses to cope with. Martin Jorgensen, Marco Donadel and their captain Dario Dainelli, are all unavailable through injury, while Gianluca Comotto is suspended.

Roma are the [1.97] favourites, with the draw at [3.4] and Fiorentina [4.9]. With Roma in good form and Fiorentina having such a poor record in the capital, the price for the home win is good value. A 1-0 Roma win can be backed at [7.4], with 2-0 at [10.5]. In the Over/Unders market, Over 2.5 goals can be backed at [2.04], which may be worth investing in, as Fiorentina's Alberto Gilardino is in form and has a good scoring record against Roma.