Serie A Betting: Roma to win and put serious pressure on Inter

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 05 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Mirko Vucinic has upped his game in the absences of Francesco Totti and Luca Toni

"Claudio Ranieri’s side had won eight in a row in the League before throwing away a two goal lead in Naples last week, and even though they’re still troubled by injuries, I think that Roma at home will be too good for Milan."

Dave Farrar looks ahead to the weekend's action in Serie A where Claudio Ranieri's Roma are closing the gap on league favourites Inter Milan and could really turn up the heat on Jose Mourinho's men by getting the better of the "other Milan" this weekend.

ROMA v MILAN

Milan have the tantalising prospect of waking up on Sunday morning just one point behind Inter in the race for the Scudetto, but first they'll have to beat Serie A's in form team in the shape of Roma.

Claudio Ranieri's side had won eight in a row in the League before throwing away a two goal lead in Naples last week, and even though they're still troubled by injuries, I think that Roma at home will be too good for Milan.

Francesco Totti is still out, but there's a chance that Luca Toni may be fit enough for the bench, and Roma's strength of will without those two players has been really impressive. They give you the impression of being a squad in the true sense of the word, and the likes of Julio Baptista and Mirko Vucinic have stepped up to the plate in the absence of Totti and Toni.

Their chances of winning the midfield battle will be helped by the absence of Gennaro Gattuso from the Milan team, and Roma still have title ambitions of their own, in the knowledge that they alone, among the top teams in the division still have the chance of taking points off Inter. If Roma can win on Saturday night and then beat Inter in three weeks time, then their comfortable looking run in will give them a real chance of a shock title win, and the [18.5] which is available about them winning Serie A isn't the worst bet in the world. For now, though, I'll settle for backing them to beat Milan on Saturday night.

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SAMPDORIA v LAZIO

I was going to tip Chievo to win at an out of form Bari this weekend, but Chievo's injury list means that I'll steer clear.

At a similar price, though, Lazio might just be worth a small bet to cause an upset at Sampdoria. Since Edy Reja took over, Lazio have won one, drawn one and lost one, so their profile may not look that enticing, but they won at Parma, lost in Palermo, and last week conceded a last minute goal against Fiorentina. There's no shame in losing in Sicily, and the other two results suggest that Reja is getting more right than wrong.

He dropped Mauro Zarate last week, but that may have been to give the Argentine finisher a rest, and by all accounts Zarate looked fantastic in a midweek friendly that Lazio organised. Zarate will be a threat to a Samp backline that never looks entirely convincing, and playing away from home will give Lazio a boost, given the poisonous atmosphere that currently exists around the Olimpico. Antonio Cassano is still out for Samp, but their form without him has been largely excellent, but I think that they are an overrated and pretty predictable side. They're unbeaten at home, but have had one or two close shaves along the way, and their luck may be about to run out against a Lazio team that is desperate for the points to move away from the relegation zone. I can see Lazio keeping Giampaolo Pazzini and Nicola Pozzi out, and then striking on the break to deal Samp's Champions League hopes another blow.

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INTER v GENOA

Inter did really well to win in Udine last week, and even though Sulley Muntari and Esteban Cambiasso are still absent, they will be much stronger with Ivan Cordoba and Walter Samuel returning to the side.

Both of these teams were involved in games which featured at least five goals last week, and although Genoa are a slightly different proposition away from home, I still think that this will be a wide open game. Inter are involved in high scoring games much more often than their rather stern image might suggest, and they've already beaten Siena 4-3 and Palermo 5-3 here this season. Given that Genoa lost 5-2 here to Milan earlier in the season, I think that goals are more than likely on Sunday night, as Inter look to tighten their grip on the title. Over 2.5 goals are understandably trading at odds on, but I think that we may well have more than 3 goals here, and so am happy to take a bigger price on over 3.5 goals.

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