Serie A Betting: Return of a certain Totti can get Roma backers' pulses racing

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 23 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Dave Farrar talks us through the best bets in Serie A this weekend including why the goals are likely to dry up at the San Siro at the weekend and how Totti's return for Roma could be Napoli's undoing.

INTER v SAMPDORIA

Two sides who are out of form seem highly unlikely to provide any kind of spectacle at San Siro. The Sampdoria coach Walter Mazzari was disgusted with his team's performance against Palermo last week, and Samp were booed off by their own supporters.

Mazzari would bite your hand off if you offered him a 0-0 draw from this fixture, and, given that his team seem more proficient in a defensive formation than they do when they try to attack, they have every chance of frustrating a struggling Inter. The key to this game is the absence of the suspended Zlatan Ibrahimovic: there is a theory that Inter are so over reliant on Ibra that they may actually play better without his huge personality on the pitch, but that view recklessly ignores the statistics.

Ibrahimovic may disappoint when the big games come along, but his form in front of goal is one of the main reasons that Mourinho's team has stayed on top of the table. What I like about him is that he scores key goals, ones that earn his side points, and he is not the type who gets the 3rd and 4th in a 4-0 win. Inter have scored 33 goals this season, and Ibrahimovic has got 12 of them. Next in the scoring charts is the wonderful right back Maicon with 4, and then four players have 2 goals each.

Welcome to Jose's crazy black and white world. Obviously, its' impossible to back Inter at [1.51] without their top scorer, but I'm not sure that they're a lay either given Sampdoria's dreadful current form, and over-reliance on Antonio Cassano, who has too many off days to be trusted. Given what happened last week, both teams seem certain to take a cautious approach, and under 2.5 goals is a sound bet at a pretty generous price. Take the [1.93], and have a smaller stake on the 0-0 draw, which is trading at [15.0].

RECOMMENDATION: Under 2.5 goals in INTER v SAMPDORIA @ [1.93]

0-0 between INTER and SAMPDORIA @ [15.0]

LAZIO v CAGLIARI

If Inter and Sampdoria represent out of form sides, then two teams in really good shape come together at the Olimpico on Sunday. Cagliari have lost only once in eight games, and that was only because of two late goals here against Roma.

Lazio had a wonderful start to the season, and then saw their form dip in November and early December, but, including a Thursday night Coppa Italia win over Torino, they've won three of their last four games, and their performance in a 1-1 draw against Juventus last weekend was excellent.

Cagliari's last away game did the business for us on the Asian Handicap, as they took the lead at Inter and held them to a 1-1 draw, and there's no reason to desert them now. Lazio are great to watch when they get things right, but when Rocchi and Pandev in particular are slightly off their game, then Delio Rossi's team is certainly opposable, and if Cagliari can draw with Napoli and Inter away then they can stop Lazio from winning. Lazio are too short for a team that struggles for consistency, and Cagliari have been worth following on the road against big teams.

RECOMMENDATION Lay LAZIO at home against CAGLIARI @ [1.74]

NAPOLI v ROMA

Having a strong Napoli back in Serie A is wonderful for Italian football, and in the first half of the season they were one of the most entertaining teams to watch in the division.

On their return from the winter break, though, there have been signs that Edy Reja's team have become a little bit tired and predictable, and with Roma resurgent, and finding some defensive stability at last, I fancy the Giallorossi to become the first away team to win at the San Paolo this season.

Napoli were awful against Catania in a 1-0 win two weeks ago, and, after watching that game, I kicked myself for not tipping Chievo to beat them last week at a big price. The worst team in the league obliged, and even more importantly, Napoli's star player Marek Hamsik was sent off and is suspended this weekend. Ezequiel Lavezzi may get many of the headlines, but Hamsik is the man who drives Napoli forward: his absence will allow Roma to dominate the midfield, and as a result of that, the game.

Francesco Totti is back and expected to play for Roma, and I expect his return to be the final piece in the jigsaw. Roma won 2-0 here last year, and I expect a similar scoreline on Sunday.

RECOMMENDATION Back ROMA to beat NAPOLI @ [2.8]