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Serie A Betting: Mutu injury can open the door for Cagliari

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Eurosport's Dave Farrar talks us through the best betting opportunities in Serie A this weekend where Napoli are a decent bet to win again and a Fiorentina side missing skipper Adrian Mutu may miss the Romanian a little too much on their trip to Cagliari.

ROMA v LAZIO

With a minute of stoppage time to go in last week's game at Bologna, Roma truly looked to have turned a corner. They led 1-0, and they had turned in the kind of error free performance which looked capable of capitalising on their Champions League victory over Chelsea.

And then Cicinho flew into the six yard box and buried a diving header in the back of his own net. It was back to square one in the most bizarre circumstances. This weekend Roma play Lazio in one of the biggest derby matches in Italy, with Lazio 14 points clear of their city rivals in the table. It's a difficult game to solve, but it seems certain to be entertaining.

Roma may have lost their cutting edge this season, but they've shown signs of recapturing their rhythm lately, and in Lazio they face the top scorers in the league.

Both games between these two last season finished with five goals, and with Roma seemingly certain to go all out for the win, and Lazio more than capable of picking them off on the counter attack, it's likely to be a Sunday night classic.

Over 2.5 goals certainly shouldn't be trading at odds-against, with both sides more than likely to score. 7 of Lazio's 11 games so far have reached the over 2.5 mark, and Roma's recent improvement suggests that it won't be long before they start being involved in more free flowing spectacles themselves. Take the chance that it will be this weekend.

RECOMMENDATION Over 2.5 goals @ [2.02]

ATALANTA v NAPOLI

Atalanta were one of the early season stories in Serie A, briefly topping the table, but reality is starting to bite, and five games without a win have sent them spiralling in the wrong direction.

It was their home form which sustained them, as they won their first three games at the Azzurri D'Italia, but since then they have lost here against Milan and only managed to draw against a stubborn Lecce. Napoli's title challenge has been similarly sustained by brilliant home form, but they've also had joy away, notably with a victory at Lazio, and an unlucky defeat at San Siro against Milan.

There is a definite gulf in class between these sides, especially with Napoli at full strength and the Atalanta coach Gigi Del Neri denied the valuable services of Luca Cigarini in particular. Readers of my Wednesday column will know that I think that Napoli are the most likely of the championship outsiders to win Serie A, and represent value at [44.0]. I also think that they're value to take advantage of Atalanta's slump, and keep up their momentum with a win this weekend. Edy Reja has impressed me hugely this season, and he has both the tactical plan and the personnel to grab another away win.

RECOMMENDATION Back NAPOLI to beat ATALANTA @ [2.84]

CAGLIARI v FIORENTINA

Cagliari beat Fiorentina here last season, and have shown enough form lately to suggest that they could do so again. Cagliari lost last week against Catania, but that's nothing to be ashamed of these days, and Cagliari created enough chances to suggest that they can put up a better show here.

After a traumatic start, the side from Sardinia have won three of their last five, including victories at home against both Chievo and Bologna. They also drew 0-0 with Milan here, and only lost narrowly against Juventus. One of the keys to Fiorentina is the fitness of Adrian Mutu, and after struggling manfully with injury, he will now rest for a couple of weeks and La Viola miss him, even with Alberto Gilardino is such good form.

Fiorentina lost to Siena in their last away game, and, even without the local derby effect, Cagliari will make things equally difficult. It's tempting to put Cagliari up to win this one, but let's stay with the insurance of the Asian Handicap, and get with Massimiliano Allegri's team to put a further dent in the title hopes of Fiorentina.

RECOMMENDATION CAGLIARI + 0 & 0.5 on Asian Handicap v FIORENTINA @ [1.81]

Elsewhere this weekend, Palermo play Inter, and a few weeks ago, I would have been confidently recommending Palermo to take advantage of an overrated Inter, but given Palermo's recent dip in form, there are too many question marks to advocate backing them.

If you're desperate for another gamble on Serie A, then there will be many less attractive bets than Palermo at [5.1], especially given their home record, but pressure is such a big factor with Davide Ballardini already being criticised by his trigger happy chairman, and so I'll reluctantly pass on the Rosanero this weekend.