Serie A Betting: Mour than enough good reasons for going "overs" in as Inter visit Juve

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 17 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Dave Farrar looks ahead to the big match of the weekend as Jose Mourinho's Inter travel to Turin, which unfortunately for the neutrals is no longer a title decider but should make for good viewing (and betting) nonetheless. Best bet: over 2.5 goals @ [2.12] in Juventus v Inter Milan.

This is the game that might have been: even a couple of months ago, Juventus fans still had realistic hopes of winning the title, taking advantage of a shaky and far from vintage Inter side, but Juve have failed to find consistency, and after conceding three goals on each of the last two matchdays, their real battle now is to hold on to second place in Serie A, with only two points separating themselves and Milan. Juve v Inter is still the biggest game in Italy though, and it will be quite an occasion to be part of on Betfair Live Video on Saturday night.

Claudio Ranieri has been confirmed as Juve coach for next season, and he will expect a big response from his players against an Inter team which has only lost twice away from home all season, but which was awful against Palermo last weekend. Juve weren't much better in defeat in Genoa, but they will be inspired by a fantastic atmosphere at the Olimpico, and they certainly have more at stake. If you take the view that the team which has more to play for is the one which tends to win football matches, then you should certainly be in the Juve camp here. Juve are [2.66] to win the game and move to within seven points of Inter at the top, but the price which interests me more is over 2.5 goals at [2.12].

The first game between these sides this season finished 1-0 in Inter's favour, although it was actually fairly open. And even though some of you may have the feeling that this will be cagey and rather dull, the statistics point the other way. Juve's home games this season have averaged 3 goals, and Inter's away from home 2.6, and if you look at Juve's domestic form since they lost against Chelsea in the Champions League, the case for over 2.5 goals on Saturday night becomes even more convincing. Four games have each produced over 4.5 goals, and even the great Gigi Buffon has admitted that Juve's defending as a team has been embarrassing.

Inter have a reputation for keeping things tight, but the nature of their matches against the other top teams in the division is interesting. A 1-0 defeat against Milan and the 1-0 win over Juve apart, all of their other higher profile matches have been played at a higher tempo and led to goals. The suspicion that Inter turn it on when they need to is backed up by the stats, and that may be the case on Saturday night. The danger in going over 2.5 goals is that both teams, having conceded badly last weekend, will be overly cautious here, but at the prices, it's a risk worth taking and we could have a real classic to remember on Saturday, whether it ultimately affects the title race or not.

RECOMMENDATION Over 2.5 goals in JUVENTUS v INTER @ [2.12]

ROMA v LECCE

I hate getting sucked into conspiracy theories in Serie A, and on the face of things Roma are near certainties to beat Lecce on Sunday afternoon. But the fact remains that Roma's hopes of a Champions League place next season are pretty much finished after their derby defeat by Lazio, while Lecce have to win to keep up their faint hopes of avoiding relegation. In the old days of Serie A, when prices always reflected what teams had to achieve, rather than what form suggested the result would be, there is no way that Lecce would have been trading at [12.5] to win at the Olimpico, given the friendly relationship which exists between the clubs.

I'm not for a minute suggesting that the game will be fixed, those days are thankfully over in Serie A, but it wouldn't be the biggest shock in the world if the relative motivation of both teams on Sunday leads to a surprising result. The fly in the ointment is that Roma were so dismayed by their thumping in the Derby that they may feel that they owe their fans a big win and go out and put five past Lecce, but to counterbalance that Lecce haven't been playing as badly as their recent results suggest, and even without arguments of convenience, they'd have a fair chance of getting something from the Olimpico, particularly with John Arne Riise likely to start at centre back for Roma. Don't have a big bet, but have a speculative punt on Lecce getting their first win since September in surprising surroundings.

RECOMMENDATION LECCE to beat ROMA at [12.5]

GENOA v LAZIO

Finally for this week, a quick word about Genoa's game against Lazio, which I can't see as being anything else but wide open and full of goals. Lazio have finally found their confidence in front of goal and will be buzzing after putting four past Roma last week. While Genoa have shrugged off the absence of Diego Milito and continue their push for that Champions League place and, in the knowledge that Lazio are likely to score, will go all out for the win. Genoa beat Juve 3-2 last week and we can expect a similar scoreline here.

RECOMMENDATION Over 4.5 Goals in Genoa v Lazio @ [9.0]