Serie A Betting: More goals mean more profits

Italian Football / Matthew Walton / 22 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Whether Italian football is on the verge of a wholesale revolution remains to be seen. The country which gave us Gentile, Tardelli and Baresi is unlikely to become a strikers' paradise overnight."

Serie A's transformation from defenders' paradise to the league of a goalscoring revolution is good news for bettors, says Matthew Walton.

Famed over the years for being the 'home of defending' Italian football may finally be shedding its miserly image.

Thinking back to when Italian clubs ruled Europe, with five European Cups won by Serie A teams in the 15 years between 1982/83 and 1996/97 (plus five UEFA Cups and three Cup Winners Cup trophies) this was achieved on the principle of teams being strong at the back. The style was simple but effective - score, don't concede, win the game.

Sadly, this was reflected by the fact that in the 1983/84 season there was just 2.38 goals/game scored in Serie A and by 1988/89, the middle of this golden period, the average had dropped to an average of just 2.10. And into the 1990's, when successful sides and big money attracted all the star names of Europe to the Italian top flight, the average goals/game ratio only rose to 2.42 in 1993/94.

However, something of a renaissance has hit Serie A in recent seasons. In 2006/07 the average increased to 2.55 goals/game, in 2007/08 that figure had inched its way up to 2.56 and last season the figure was 2.60 goals/game.

Viewed in isolation those figures mean little but compared to other leading European countries the proof of a fundamental change in Italian football is self-evident. Last season in the Bundesliga there were 2.92 goals/game scored, the ratio was 2.88 in Spain's Primera Liga and the much touted home of attacking football, the Premier League, managed just 2.47 goals/game.

Whether we're on the verge of a wholesale revolution in Italian football remains to be seen - old habits die hard - and the country which gave us Gentile, Tardelli and Baresi is unlikely to become a strikers' paradise overnight.

But as students of the game we must recognise these scoring patterns and note their effect on the Betfair markets - correct score, total goals and the popular over/under market.

And these patterns are even visible when we consider clubs on an individual basis, as opposed to the division as a whole. Even despite the passing of time and the customary change in personnel, some sides retain regular patterns of performance which we can study, learn from and apply to the markets for our personal gain.

For example, over the last five seasons in Serie A, Roma have been in the top three on the goals/game table four times (and the other year they were in the top five). The last two seasons they topped it with 2.87 goals/game in 2007/08 and 3.29 in 2008/09. And this season for the Giallorossi ... four matches played, all over 2.5 goals, average 4.0 goals/game.

This weekend they play at Catania, who themselves topped the averages in 2006/07 and already average 3.50 goals/game this season. A play on the over 2.5 goals market looks a sound trade on this basis. Pitched around [2.0] it really should be well odds-on.

Take a side like Fiorentina. In the last three seasons their matches have averaged 2.45 in 2006/07, 2.47 in 2007/08 and 2.39 in 2008/09 - so far this season it's just 2.0 per match.

This coming weekend they face another side, Livorno, who habitually generate little interest at either end of the pitch. This match, by contrast to the above fixture, looks a strong call to be under 2.5 goals. It should trade some way below [2.0] but it may not - and that is value.

And a final warning. It's easy to presume sides near the top of the table feature in matches with lots of goals and those at the bottom feature fewer. But the equation is, top sides score more but concede less, whilst the bottom sides score less but concede more - that's why the top three sides in the averages last season in Serie A finished 6-7-8 in the table.

Sides who score plenty but also concede a few, history tells us, tend not to win titles but end up mid-table.

So study the data because in leagues like Serie A goals (or a lack of them) can mean money.