Serie A Betting: Milan to win and throw Serie A wide open

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 22 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

AC Milan's Pato could well end up on the winning side this Sunday

"There is a chance, given the talent that’s on the field, that this could end being a classic high scoring Sunday night thriller, but I think that nerves will play a part and that Milan will be just too good for Inter, setting up an unbelievable end to the season."

It's the Milan Derby this weekend and Leonardo's AC can overcome Jose Mourinho's containing tactics and deliver a victory for attacking football and themselves. So says Dave Farrar.

INTER v MILAN

We'll know sometime late on Sunday night whether we will have a proper title race this Serie A season or not. If Milan can win the derby, then it's game on, but if Inter steal a victory, then that's probably the end of any doubts about who will be crowned champions. Milan have done extraordinarily well just to put themselves in this position. Since Ronaldinho got Leonardo out of trouble with that late goal against Atalanta in October, Milan have won 10 out of their 12 Serie A games, and Inter's poor form this year has allowed the Rossoneri back into the picture. If Milan can get a victory at San Siro on Sunday, then I think that they will go on to win the title, but even with a long injury list, Inter are a tough proposition. The fighting spirit of Mourinho's side has been evident in their last two games, coming from behind to beat Siena and then draw with Bari, but they're not playing well.

Samuel Eto'o is in Africa, Motta and Chivu are out, and it looks like neither Stankovic or Muntari will be fit to play in midfield. It will stretch the squad to its limit, and even though Milan are without Pato and possibly Alessandro Nesta, I think they they will start the match with the better line up, and that just gives them the edge. Ronaldinho is on fire, linking brilliantly with Beckham and Borriello, and how Lucio, Samuel and Maicon cope with the three of them will be the key to the game. I suspect that Mourinho knows that he can't beat Milan at their own expansive game and so he will try and keep space at a premium and stop Leonardo's team from playing.

There is a chance, given the talent that's on the field, that this could end being a classic high scoring Sunday night thriller, but I think that nerves will play a part and that Milan will be just too good for Inter, setting up an unbelievable end to the season. Don't forget either that the derby is free to air on ESPN. Jim Proudfoot and Craig Burley will be in the San Siro, and I've spoken to Jim who says that they're both just a little bit excited about the way that the game might unfold. So should you be: two top teams, two commentators who really care about Serie A: don't you dare watch anything else on Sunday night.

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MILAN to beat INTER @ [3.0]

MILAN to win 1-0 @ [11.0]

GENOA v ATALANTA

Atalanta are on to their fourth coach of the season, and in the experienced Bortolo Mutti they may just have found the right man. A win over Lazio last weekend was followed by a storming comeback against Bologna in midweek, and with Genoa looking tired and uninspired, Atalanta may just be good enough to grab a surprise win at the Marassi. Followers of this column will know that I'm a fan of Gian Piero Gasperini's free flowing style, and I think that his team will come on strong again at the end of the season, but for now they should be swerved.

They were lucky to get away with a draw against Bari in midweek, and may just be there for the taking at a decent price. Genoa have injury problems, including the absence of influential centre half Salvatore Bocchetti, and with Ernesto Chevanton starting to rediscover some of his old flair going forward, I think that Atalanta are a bit of value.

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ATALANTA to beat GENOA @ [4.9]

JUVENTUS v ROMA

A brief word about the other glamour fixture of the weekend, Juventus against Roma on Saturday night. I'm amazed that Ciro Ferrara still has a job at Juve after overseeing what must be a series of the worst displays in the club's history. They are awful, and Claudio Ranieri will want revenge on Saturday night after being sacked by Juve at the end of the last season. Roma have gone eleven games unbeaten in Serie A, and with Ranieri likely to go with an attacking tridente of Vucinic, Totti and Toni, the visitors should be way too strong for Juve, and Ferrara will be a step closer to the exit on Saturday night. [3.15] about a Roma win is a great price. Snap it up.

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ROMA to beat JUVENTUS @ [3.15]