Serie A Betting: Milan Derby dominates week five in Italy

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 26 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Eurosport's Dave Farrar on why Juve are still a big price to win at Sampdoria despite injuries to key players and who can come out on top as the nation turns its attention to the Milan Derby on Sunday night.

SAMPDORIA v JUVENTUS

Juve's run of wins by a goal to nil came to an end against Catania on Wednesday, but they were unlucky not to grab a winner late on. Roma apologists have been making fitness excuses for their team's poor run of form, but Juve have had to deal with far worse injury problems.

David Trezeguet is out for four months and they lost Gigi Buffon on Wednesday, with Grygera, Camoranesi, Del Piero, Zanetti and Zebina all missing games already. It's all very well throwing cheap shots about style Caludio Ranieri's way, but if you take the view that Juve's squad is being tested now, and that they will be stronger later on in the season, then they are an extremely attractive price to win Serie A at [5.7], and ridiculously big for the Champions League at [21.0], given that the winners of that competition tends to be the team which finishes the strongest.

I watched Sampdoria at Siena in midweek and they were underwhelming. They rely so much on Antonio Cassano to create and to score that if Juventus can stop him they'll be confident of getting a win. Samp will raise their game, but Juve will be furious after conceding against Catania, and I expect them to keep a clean sheet and win a low scoring game. It all, frankly and unoriginally, points to a 1-0 win for Juve, and I wouldn't put you off taking the [8.0] which is on offer, but I'm amazed to see [2.4] about a Juve win, and so that has to be the bet here.

RECOMMENDATION Back Juve to win at [2.4]

ROMA v ATALANTA

The callers to post match phone ins in Rome on Wednesday night were incandescenti. Their target was the referee Signor Brighi after he disallowed a Panucci goal and sent off Daniele De Rossi. Calciopoli is back, they said, the referee was bought, and nobody loves us any more.

The honest assessment is that Genoa deserved to win the game, that De Rossi deserved his red card, but that Panucci's goal should not have been disallowed. Roma were perhaps a little unfortunate, but they weren't cheated in the manner that the fans are suggesting. The fact is that Roma aren't playing very well. Of all the teams in Serie A, they need a spark to set them going, and that indescribable something just isn't there at the moment. They have injuries, but they are hiding behind them rather than fighting to win when not at full strength, and if the season continues like this they'll soon be out of the running for the League and the Champions League.

In contrast, Atalanta have overachieved so far. They've had a comfortable start, but have taken full advantage and go into the weekend in 2nd place. Gigi Del Neri has them playing a completely different way: gone is the buccaneering style of last season, when at times they seemed an over 2.5 goal certainty every week, and you'll now find them playing a cagey, disciplined system in which their first thought is not to concede. It's a shame, as it shackles the brilliant Cristiano Doni, but it's working.

Atalanta have conceded just one goal all season, away at Catania, and each of their games so far has featured just one goal. And yet for the game at the Olimpico this weekend, over 2.5 goals is favourite, presumably because Roma are much stronger than anyone else they've played this season and they'll put three past Del Neri's side.

Not so. An out of form Roma against a cautious Atalanta makes the unders a must bet at odds against. I'll also have a speculative small stake on Atalanta to win 1-0. Stranger things have happened this season already, and there'll be plenty more.

RECOMMENDATION Under 2.5 goals at [2.06] and Atalanta to win 1-0 at [20.0]

MILAN v INTER

The game which dominates the weekend is the final game of this Matchday: the Derby della Madonnina between Milan and Inter. This represents the first major test for Jose Mourinho's Inter, and it's also the first of the battles which will decide the destiny of the Scudetto.

In a close run season, it's always the results between the big clubs which decide the title, and with Inter playing away at Roma and Fiorentina before the end of October, and Juventus not facing another title challenger until after that, Mourinho will be especially keen to get a win.

A week ago, this would have looked a foregone conclusion, with Inter grinding out wins and Milan seemingly incapable of beating anyone. And then Milan won three games in a row, Inter stuttered against Lecce in midweek, and suddenly we have a match on our hands. My colleague Dan Fitch previews this game in more detail elsewhere, but here's my two Euros worth. Inter will probably win, and [2.7] is a big price, but you must be wary of Milan turning it on like they did against Lazio last Sunday. On form, they're still the best team in Serie A: if Marco Borriello was fit I'd be tempted by the [3.15] about Milan, but he isn't, and so Inter are my cautious selection. My bigger bet will be over 2.5 goals: neither of these teams convinces at the back, and both have wonderful attacking talent.

Between them, they have kept one league clean sheet all season, and both have scored seven goals in four games. If you want a brave and slightly foolhardy multiple, then add over 2.5 in this game to the same bet in the games at Palermo and Torino. They both love to attack, and this weekend they both have opposition who will respond in kind.

RECOMMENDATIONS: Over 2.5 goals in the Milan derby at [2.16]

Mulitiple of over 2.5 goals in MILAN v INTER, PALERMO v REGGINA, and TORINO v LAZIO