Serie A Betting: Milan derby could decide title

Italian Football / Matthew Walton / 21 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

"Over 200 previous meetings, the head-to-head stands at 70-69 in Inter's favour. It couldn’t be any closer."

Whether it's Madrid, Manchester or Milan, there's nothing quite like a local derby. More so when there's a league title potentially resting on the outcome. Matthew Walton selects the best bets from the biggest match of the Italian season.

This weekend at the Guiseppe Meazza Stadium the race for the Serie A title could take a dramatic turn as the city's two footballing giants meet in as big a Milan derby as we've seen in the past few years.

In recent weeks, Jose Mourinho's Nerrazurri have seen an almost unassailable nine point lead dwindle to the point that, should Inter lose this weekend, and AC win their game in hand, the teams will be tied at the top of the table on 46 points.

Already traded as low as [1.23] to win Serie A, and still currently available around the [1.42] mark, it's a big worry for backers of Inter. The side which started the season in such good form (P10 W8 D1 L1) have, by their own high standards, fallen some way short of that level in recent matches (P10 W6 D3 L1).

Meanwhile, AC Milan, after a poor start to the season, have found the winning habit of late (P10 W8 D1 L1) as Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, David Beckham and Ronaldinho have fired the Rossoneri back into contention. Some traders on Betfair have been matched as high as [75.00] for a side who at [3.85] are now a very serious threat to their fellow lodgers at the San Siro.

Fans of Inter will point to their meeting earlier this season when the champions romped to a 4-0 victory. However, by the same token, in each of the past two seasons both sides have recorded one win apiece in these matches and, over 200 past meetings, the head-to-head stands at 70-69 in Inter's favour. It couldn't be any closer.

For the match itself Inter [2.66] shade favouritism over AC [3.00] with the draw the outsider of the three at [3.35]. However, should the league leaders prevail they will have to do so without Samuel Eto'o (African Nations Cup) as well as possible absentees Muntari, Motta and Stankovic who are all doubts through injury.

AC coach Leonardo is also without a key striker as fellow Brazilian Alexandre Pato has been ruled out, whilst Alessandro Nesta is a doubt. Such problems, especially for Inter, might prompt a tight game where each side adopts a 'must not lose' approach, but interestingly enough there hasn't been a draw in this fixture since way back in October 2004.

And incidentally, that match, some 13 games ago in this series, was also the last 0-0 draw between the two sides. This sequence has seen the number of goals in each match average 2.69 with the most frequent scoreline being 2-1 (either way). Transfer these statistics onto the exchange and over 2.5 goals [2.08] makes obvious appeal as does the correct score market which sees Inter 2-1 [10.5] and AC 2-1 [12.0]. Both viable options in a match where Serie A's two leading scorers are in opposition - Inter have scored 43 times in 20 games, AC 35 in 19.

Of course the title won't be won or lost on Sunday, but with both sides well clear of Roma, Napoli and Juventus, a positive result either way will have a seismic effect on the Betfair market.

Should you fancy Mourinho to end his Italian adventure with another title or believe that AC can win this year's title, now might well be the time to secure the best price on the exchange.

Alternatively, should you simply want to get involved with the biggest domestic match of the Italian season, the thought of it deciding the destination of the trophy should provide the perfect back-drop to a mouth-watering encounter.