Serie A Betting: Milan can't afford another season like this

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 29 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Milan bid farewell to Paolo Maldini in Florence, Chievo are well placed to cause a shock and Dave Farrar offers a final day overs accumulator... Best Bet: Back the Draw in Fiorentina v Milan @ [3.45].

Fiorentina v Milan

For a while it seemed as if Serie A would simply wither away this season, but, as well as relegation issues elsewhere, we do at least have a show stopping game to light up the final day of what has been a far from vintage season.

Milan will bid a final farewell to Paolo Maldini, and probably Carlo Ancelotti too, and they are desperate not to fall into fourth place in the league, which is what would happen if Fiorentina beat them by two clear goals and Juventus, as expected, defeat Lazio.

Fourth place would mean Champions League qualifiers, a disrupted start to the season, and a hollow legacy for Ancelotti. The coach will be without Massimo Ambrosini for this final game, which means that drive and inspiration must come from elsewhere, although Cesare Prandelli is also missing Felipe Melo and Dario Dainelli, as well as the key long term absentee Adrian Mutu.

Having lost their last two games, Milan are certainly in danger at the Artemio Franchi, although La Viola were a little disappointing in last weekend's draw with Lecce, and are by no means certain to get the win here. They certainly look short enough at [2.54], with Milan tempting at [3.05]. With so much at stake, I expect this one to be low scoring, and for Milan to get what they want, without necessarily winning the game.

Fiorentina just look a little too toothless without key players, and even though I hate tipping the draw, that is the most likely outcome here, and represents a touch of value, as does under 2.5 goals at odds against. For Milan, this must represent the moment when they grab the result they need, and move onwards and upwards from here. One of Europe's greatest clubs really can't afford another season like this one.

Recommendation: Back the Draw in Fiorentina v Milan @ [3.45]
Under 2.5 goals in Fiorentina v Milan @ [2.06]

Napoli v Chievo

For our next bit of value in a week in which it's very hard to find any, we turn to the San Paolo in Naples: Napoli have been a dream to oppose for this column since the mid-season break, and even though they improved a little under Roberto Donadoni, their form has tailed off again, and the long season which started with the Intertoto Cup is really beginning to take its toll.

Napoli have lost three of their last four games, against Siena, Torino and Catania, and Chievo are very well placed to cause a shock which may even mean that Donadoni is gone before the beginning of next season. Chievo only secured their top flight status last week, but I've been really impressed by the way that they have fought under Mimmo Di Carlo. They have lost only three times this year, and beat Napoli earlier on in the season.

How can a Napoli team that has won once since the 11th of January be odds on to get a victory here? Chievo's run to safety has been based on drawing games, and so I wouldn't advocate backing them to win, but they have every chance of coming away from the San Paolo with something to build on for next season.

Recommendation: Lay Napoli against Chievo @ [1.76]

Final day accumulator...

There is so little value around in Serie A this weekend, given the number of potential foregone conclusions (Bologna v Catania anyone?) and the number of demotivated teams that will be taking the field, that my final tip is speculative to say the least, but maybe worth an accumulator. There will be goals in the division this weekend, and many of the prices reflect that, although it's worth finishing off our Serie A punting with a final day over 2.5 goals accumulator. My suggestion is that the games in Genoa, Rome, Udine and Turin will be the ones to follow in terms of goals, and so get on the Betfair Mulitples and see if you can brighten your day with the joy that nailing an accumulator always brings!

I hope that you've enjoyed this fairly dour Serie A season. Trust me, it'll be better next year when, who knows, Inter may even lose their title.....