Serie A Betting: Make money out of Juve's suspect form

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 30 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Dave Farrar watched in midweek as Juve's Serie A title hopes suffered a huge blow and there may be further damage done this weekend, so get laying. Plus the best of the other Serie A bets.

LAZIO v MILAN

After watching David Beckham score a fantastic free kick against Genoa, and then allowing Diego Milito to hook home a late equaliser, there's an air of real frustration around the AC Milan camp as they prepare to go to the Olimpico on Sunday.

The Milan players are saying that they want to put things right, and Lazio may be on the end of a real hiding. Lazio's form has collapsed since Christmas: they are scoring goals, but they can't stop conceding, and Delio Rossi is coming under serious pressure for his job. They've lost two of their four matches since the resumption, and more significantly from our point of view, three of those four have featured over 3.5 goals.

The other one, a 1-1 home draw with Juventus, had everything but another goal. If you add to that a 3-1 Coppa Italia victory over Torino, then you'll get a pretty accurate picture of Lazio: fun to watch, always an attacking threat, but desperate at the back.

Each of Milan's last six away games in all competitions have featured at least four goals, and it's hard to see Sunday night's match not producing another high scoring result. Last season, Milan won here by five goals to one, and earlier on in this campaign the Rossoneri trounced Lazio 4-1 at San Siro.

With Milan's back line a little suspect, and Lazio turning into the team to follow in terms of goals, the recommendation is obvious, and for those who want to play less conservatively, there's a case for over 3.5 and 4.5 goals, as well as 2.5. All of the prices in those markets look too big to me, and so I'll leave you to be the judge of how brave you want to be.

RECOMMENDATION Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.89], over 3.5 goals @ [3.05], over 4.5 goals @ [6.2]

JUVENTUS v CAGLIARI

This may have been the week that cost Juventus the title. While Inter were getting away with it in Catania, Juve were inexplicably poor as they went down to Udinese, and the misery could well be piled on this Saturday evening as one of Serie A's in form teams visit Turin.

There was no tempo to Juve's play at the Friuli, and they were lucky to only lose by a single goal. They missed the rested Del Piero and Chiellini, but I'm not sure that those two players would have made enough of a difference to turn the result around. Cagliari have won money for us before, holding both Inter and Napoli away and losing by the odd goal in five to Roma, and their record of 21 points from their last 30 is Champions League form.

They were unfortunate to lose to Juventus earlier in the season, when Alex Manninger was in stellar form to make Amauri's goal the match winner, and they'll never have a better chance of causing an upset, with Juventus so low on confidence. There is a danger that Juve's defeat in Udine will concentrate their minds and that they'll grind out a win here, but it's worth taking the chance that the excellent Federico Marchetti will once again impress Gigi Buffon, and that Cagliari will snatch the win that pretty much hands the title to Inter.

Keep the draw a little bit on your side, but have a small bet on the away win as well. If Cagliari do win at the Olimpico, it will be called the shock of the season, but regular watchers of Serie A won't be at all surprised if the wheels start to come off Juventus.

RECOMMENDATION Lay JUVENTUS v CAGLIARI @ [1.49], Back CAGLIARI @ [9.6]

NAPOLI v UDINESE

The other piece of Serie A value this week also comes on Saturday night, when fading Napoli take on an Udinese team suddenly energised after that stunning victory over Juventus. The good news for Napoli is that their best player Marek Hamsik returns from his suspension, but they have lost three in a row now, and their performances have been insipid.

Frankly, they have started to look a little tired, and that may just play into the hands of one of the best counter attacking teams in the division. The danger in backing Udinese is that you're never quite sure which team will turn up, but they were so good against Juventus that I'll take a chance on them putting their dreadful away form behind them. Toto Di Natale and Fabio Quagliarella were sensational on Wednesday, and the Chilean Isla and the much vaunted Gokhan add yet more energy. I won't be having a huge bet but the price on offer for an away win simply looks too big, and so I'll take Udinese to pull off their second win of the week.

RECOMMENDATION UDINESE to beat NAPOLI @ [4.8]