Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 11 September 2009 / Leave a comment

In what Dave Farrar views as an uninspiring week for Serie A betting, two prices leapt from his computer screen when he was mulling over the individual Match Odds markets. Read more to find the prices that caught his eye.

"With Fabio Quagliarella looking settled and in excellent form, and with Hamsyk, Cigarini and Datolo (although not the out of form Lavezzi) dangerous in behind him then I think it’s worth chancing the visitors at what is certainly too big a price."

Genoa v Napoli

There seem to be two sides to Gianpiero Gasperini's Genoa, and we've seen them both this season already. Taking on Roma at home, they showed themselves capable of winning with flair against an attacking team, and yet in their second game they ground out a 1-0 victory against a rather dour Atalanta.

With Napoli having found their form against Udinese last week, and seemingly certain to go for a win, we could be set for more fireworks at the Marassi. Having watched Napoli be desperately unlucky to lose at Palermo on the opening day, I had the feeling that they'd be a team to support in the first half of the season at least. The same is true of Genoa, and this is definitely the battle of those who would be king, and certainly features two teams who have a genuine chance of a top 3 finish.

Genoa continue to have injury problems, and while they've dealt with them so far, their newly strengthened squad is certainly being tested at an unexpectedly early stage. Floccari, Palladino and Crespo will all be missing, and so their attacking threat may just be a little blunted.

There were five goals in this fixture last season, and I certainly wouldn't put you off going down the "overs" route, but with at least two of the likeliest sources of Genoa goals missing, I'll swerve it at just better than even money, because the price that jumps out at me is the [4.0] about a Napoli win.

Question marks still hang over Roberto Donadoni, and there's a justifiable feeling that Napoli are far better at their awesome San Paolo stadium than they are away from it, but with Fabio Quagliarella looking settled and in excellent form, and with Hamsyk, Cigarini and Datolo (although not the out of form Lavezzi) dangerous in behind him then I think it's worth chancing the visitors at what is certainly too big a price. If you'd like to be a bit more circumspect, then backing them with a start on the Asian Handicap is a safer way to do it, but I'll stick with an away win.

Recommendation Napoli to beat Genoa @ [4.0]


Atalanta v Sampdoria

It's not a massively inspiring week for Serie A punting, and my stakes certainly won't be as high as they were in a successful opening two weeks. Best keep our powder at least a little bit dry, but the other price which jumped out at me this week was the [3.25] for Sampdoria to win in Bergamo against Atalanta.

Samp have been fantastic so far this season, and as long as those two favourites of mine, Cassano and Pazzini, keep fit, then they can be a match for most Serie A teams.

And Atalanta have had a dreadful start, losing in Rome against Lazio and then here against Genoa. Their new coach Angelo Gregucci is already under pressure and just about the last face that he wanted to see this weekend was the avuncular and faintly disturbing one of his much admired predecessor, Gigi Del Neri, who is now in charge at Samp.

Both sides are relatively injury free, and there is always the danger that Atalanta bounce back from their bad start, but with Cassano fresh and fuming after yet another week and a half with no international football, you'll get a good run for your money at a very pleasing price.

Recommendation Back SAMPDORIA to beat ATALANTA @ [3.25]

Rather than give a third tip that I'm not convinced about, I'd rather throw a few warning signs your way, as I believe that there are one or two mistakes to be made in Serie A this weekend.

So, in no particular order: don't go piling in on over 2.5 goals in Siena v Roma. All the stats point to a high scoring game, but Claudio Ranieri has made it very clear that his Roma will not be as attacking as Luciano Spalletti's. It's definitely best to wait and see, particularly given the fact that the League is reverting to afternoon kick offs this weekend, and it could be stifling in Siena

Also, I would sit back and watch Lazio against Juventus. Juventus looked fantastic two weeks ago, and are the likelier winners at the Olimpico, but Davide Ballardini's Lazio look much improved this season, and even with the possible absence of Mauro Zarate, they may be good enough to hold Juve.

Inter are too short to beat Parma, and if you do want to strike an over 2.5 goals bet, then Udinese against Catania may just be the one, although this week I'll stick with those two away wins.

Tags: Angelo Gregucci, Fabio Quagliarella, Genoa, Gianpiero Gasperini, Napoli, Roberto Donadoni, Sampdoria, Serie A Betting