Serie A Betting: It's obvious there will be goals in Milan so let's back them!

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 15 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Ronaldinho has been in super form recently and looks fitter than he has in a while

"There is a danger that Milan will go 2-0 up and take their foot off the pedal, but remember that they will want to make a statement before they play Inter next week, and Leonardo will be keen for his players to keep up their goalscoring rhythm."

Dave Farrar tells us why the goal floodgates are likely to open as AC Milan host a Siena side that almost did the unthinkable against Inter Milan last week but could come properly unstuck against an attack-minded Rossoneri...

MILAN v SIENA

The Serie A timetable does occasionally drive me crazy. It's hard to understand a fixture list which gives us some weekends seemingly littered with big games and others which look like this.

The outstanding game of the weekend is Napoli against Palermo on Sunday night, and more of that in a moment, but there's little doubt that Week 21 will be about the big clubs not slipping up, and conceding crucial points in the race for the title, before the most important Milan derby in years looms onto the horizon next weekend.

Milan have what looks like the easiest fixture of the top clubs: at home game against a Siena team which pushed Inter all the way last week, but after struggling against lowly Novara in the Cup in midweek, there's no way that the Rossoneri will take this game lightly. Sometimes it pays to be counterintuitive when you place a bet, but I think that we should expect the bleedin' obvious on Sunday afternoon at San Siro.

Siena's last two games have produced 13 goals, Milan are playing with absolute freedom, and I think there will be a hatful of goals in this game. Once we have come to that conclusion, then it's a question of looking for the best bit of value. You might want to go against a Milan clean sheet, you might want to back the home team on the Asian Handicap, but I think that the safest play is to play the goals and Correct Score markets, which I don't really think take the potential openness of this match into account.

Over 2.5 Goals should be shorter than [1.77] and that's true of over 3.5 Goals at [3.1] and over 4.5 @ [6.0]. I'm not a huge fan of tipping longish odd- on shots in this column and so I'll keep the latter two on my side, as well as the Any Unquoted in the Correct Score market. I think that Siena may well grab a goal, but Milan will overwhelm their flimsy defence, and, again, [5.1] looks too big.

There is a danger that Milan will go 2-0 up and take their foot off the pedal, but remember that they will want to make a statement before they play Inter next week, and Leonardo will be keen for his players to keep up their goalscoring rhythm. I expect them to win, and win convincingly, on Sunday.

RECOMMENDATION

Back over 3.5 Goals in MILAN v SIENA @ [3.1]

Back Over 4.5 Goals in MILAN v SIENA @ [6.0]

Back "Any Unquoted" in the Correct Score market @ [5.1]

NAPOLI v PALERMO

Both Udinese and Lazio have visited the San Paolo this season and come away with 0-0 draws, and I have to confess that a goalless draw was going to be my selection for this game, given the extent to which the Sicilians have improved under Delio Rossi.

He's a great organiser, and his players have responded well, but there is one crucial absentee on Sunday night who could make all the difference as Napoli look to keep up their challenge for a place in next season's Champions League. Simon Kjaer is the best defender in Serie A, and will almost certainly be starring at a far bigger club next season, but he is suspended this week and I think that his absence makes it very hard for Palermo to keep out a Napoli strikeforce which won't include the overrated Ezequiel Lavezzi, but will see a start for that scorer of crucial goals, German Denis.

The man that they call "The Tank" is fantastic in the air, and without Kjaer to marshal him and Fabio Quagliarella, Palermo will struggle to do a containing job. If you add the threat of Marek Hamsyk, I think that a home win is by far and away the likeliest outcome, far more likely than odds of [2.16] suggest. Napoli may fade away at some point this season, but it won't start on Sunday.

RECOMMENDATION

Back NAPOLI to beat PALERMO @ [2.16]

I normally offer three tips in this column, but don't really see any other prices which set my pulse racing. The only other suggestion that I have is that statistics and recent form suggest that there'll be goals in Bari (against Inter) and Rome (against Genoa) as well as in Milan. A multiple on over 2.5 in those three games may not be the bravest call in the world, but it should pay out.