Serie A Betting: Inter are there for the taking but when is a good time to oppose them?

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 23 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Dave Farrar looks at the strengths and weaknesses of the Inter Milan side under Jose Mourinho and questions whether this a side that can cling on to their Serie A lead and knock Manchester United out of the Champions League.

Last week on betting.betfair.com, Matthew Walton advocated a short priced lay of Lyon for the French title. Matthew's logic with regard to France is sound, and after Sunday's capitulation against Atalanta, we must ask the same question of Serie A and Inter Milan.

Inter were thrashed by Gigi Del Neri's tactical verve and Cristiano Doni's brilliance, and, despite a win over Roma in midweek in the largely irrelevant Coppa Italia, Inter looked like the ageing side that many have suspected them to be all season long.

Inter are longer than Lyon, trading at [1.73] to win a fourth consecutive title. That represents a huge reaction to what happened on Sunday, and, given that they have four winnable games to come before a second derby of the season against AC Milan, it may just be an overreaction. Over that same period, Juventus, who have been this column's value tip for the title all season long, have to visit both Udinese and Napoli, and have home matches against both Fiorentina and Cagliari.

Twelve points will take some getting from that batch of fixtures. Milan are the only other credible winner of Serie A, and they have a nice run of games before they play Inter, and so Carlo Ancelotti's side may even emerge as serious challengers in the next month, especially given the morale boost of Kaka's decision to stay. Milan are [5.7] to win the title, which is the right price, but I certainly wouldn't put anyone off having a saver on them.

All eyes will be on San Siro this weekend, though, as Sampdoria aim to become the latest side to frustrate Inter at home. Jose Mourinho says that Sunday's defeat should be treated as a blip, and that the mood in the Inter camp is good, but they will hardly be helped by the absence of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, and if they fail to beat Samp, then the supposed crisis may become a reality.

The problem that Mourinho has is that his squad has little variation: they are strong yet static, and they tend to grind out wins rather than dazzle and dominate. Anyone who has opposed them at home on the Asian Handicap at home this season has made hay, as only once in any competition have they beaten a team by more than a single goal.

And yet they're not solid and impregnable like, for example, George Graham's Arsenal. Frankly, there are some poor teams in the lower reaches of Serie A, and all that Inter have done is strangle them. If you take away the brilliant Ibrahimovic, then they are ordinary, and I find it laughable that they are the fourth favourites for the Champions League.

Manchester United to qualify against them at [1.71] is one of the bets of the season so far. People who are prepared to lay you that price can't have watched Inter and can't be aware of their weaknesses. Julio Cesar has looked awkward in goal, Samuel, Cordoba, Burdisso and Materazzi all look close to finished to me, and Maxwell is brilliant going forward but less so going the other way.

A midfield of Muntari, Zanetti and Cambiasso is dependable but nothing more and the signings of Mancini and particularly Quaresma have gone dreadfully wrong. Ibrahimovic is one of the best twenty players in the world, but a little inconsistent, and Maicon is the best right back you'll see anywhere, but you tell me the last time that a right back won anything for a team. (With the honourable exception of Juliano Belletti.)

Given that I've already recommended Juventus for the title at a much bigger price than they are now, I can't advocate laying Inter as the market seems to be aware just how vulnerable they are in Serie A. One offshoot of that vulnerability, though, is that I don't expect Mourinho to stay beyond this season, and he will be on the look out for a big club.

Manchester City is one option, but taking that job would surely preclude Mourinho from ever taking over at Manchester United, and there's a growing feeling within the game that United and Mourinho may just be a perfect fit. The fates of the two of them seem inextricably linked. United will beat Inter in the Champions League, but by the summer, the [4.8] about Jose Mourinho becoming the next manager of Britain's biggest club may look very big indeed.