Serie A Betting: Happy Juventus camp can push Inter all the way

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 17 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Juventus' signing of Diego from Werder Bremen is a huge boost for the Turin side and could prove to be a big factor should they be crowned champions this year.

"As Juve have strengthened over the summer, so Inter have been hugely weakened by the sale of Zlatan Ibrahimovic to Barcelona. I’ve argued elsewhere on betting.betfair.com that Zlatan was a flat track bully in Serie A, but there’s no question that Inter were reliant on him."

Dave Farrar tells us about the changes that have taken place in the dugout and on the playing staff at the major Italian clubs over the summer and thinks Juventus can go close to challenging a certain Inter Milan this year.

For the past two years, those of us who are purportedly experts on Italian football have spent pre season trying to find a way to oppose Inter Milan, deciding to do so with either Juventus or AC Milan, and then watching Inter grind their way to another title. No flair, no fun, yet highly effective.

The reason for trying to take Inter on in recent years is pretty simple. If you watch a lot of Serie A you'll know that they're overrated, and that those thoughts are borne out during every Champions League campaign. Unfortunately, no other team with the honourable exception of Roma two seasons ago has been able to stay with them for long enough to come close to spiriting the Scudetto away. So the first question to ask when trying to tip the winner of Serie A is whether Inter represent value at [1.85].

The simple answer isn't that they don't, but with Milan having lost Kaka and Roma too reliant on the fading talent of Francesco Totti, the only viable alternative to the Champions is Juventus, and they seem short enough at [3.95]. That said, Juventus have added real quality to their squad in the shape of Diego and Felipe Melo in the midfield, and Martin Caceres at the back. Ciro Ferrara might be inexperienced as a coach, but he is an impressive individual, and I have a strong feeling that he'll be a big success. He has the potential to turn into another Fabio Capello: strong, tactically astute and ultimately very successful.

As Juve have strengthened over the summer, so Inter have been hugely weakened by the sale of Zlatan Ibrahimovic to Barcelona. I've argued elsewhere on betting.betfair.com that Zlatan was a flat track bully in Serie A, but there's no question that Inter were reliant on him. They now have Diego Milito and Samuel Eto'o to lead the line, but there's no guarantee that Milito will replicate the amazing season that he had with Genoa, or that Eto'o will take to Serie A. They have added Lucio and Thiago Motta to their squad, but Motta is no Melo and Lucio isn't a good enough defender to be a big hit in this division. There are enough doubts in the Inter camp to think that Juventus can bridge the ten point gap which separated themselves and Inter last season. Juve have a happy squad unencumbered by Claudio Ranieri, and now they have the quality to edge a close title race.

With Milan looking disorganised and unconvincing, there could well be some unexpected names towards the top of the table. Genoa, Palermo and Napoli have all strengthened significantly, and with Lazio now under the charge of the former Palermo coach Davide Ballardini, and with a fit and happy Tommaso Rocchi, they're another team, along with Fiorentina, who have a chance of the top four. Much though I'd love to see an unexpected winner of the title though, I still think that it will come down to Juventus or Inter.

Gasperini's Genoa very nearly provided the answer to the capocannoniere race last season, with Milito coming desperately close to beating Zlatan to the crown. With the Swede gone, his former teammate Hernan Crespo can go well at a decent price. Crespo will benefit from Genoa's attacking style, and from the fact that he will get most of their goals. Milito and Eto'o will take goals off each other, even if they are a success, the front men at Juventus have a similar problem, and I simply don't rate Klaas Jan Huntelaar enough to think that he is value at [9.4]. Pato is a danger, but I'll stick with Crespo and Giampaolo Pazzini, who has Antonio Cassano to supply him at Sampdoria, and who has been in great pre-season form. Pazzini could end the season leading the line for Italy at the World Cup, and he is a massive price to finish as top goalscorer.

Serie A has been dull and uncompetitive for a while now, but as it returns to UK television, we could be set for the best season in years. There's a chance of an outsider going close, but in the end it will come down to Juventus winning a thrilling title race, just ahead of Inter, Lazio and Napoli, with Milan possibly out of the top four.

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