Serie A Betting: Go against the flow in Inter v Roma

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 06 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Making their Marco - Roma's Marco Motta and Inter's Marco Balotelli clash in last year's fixture. This year's will have some extra spice as Roma are now coached by Claudio Ranieri who is not exactly best friends with Jose Mourinho.

"I suspect that a combination of a slightly more defensive Roma and a less than fired up Inter might just make for a more cagey game than we would otherwise expect from the fixture."

Jose Mourinho and Claudio Ranieri rarely exchange Christmas cards and Inter v Roma rarely disappoints when it comes to goals and entertainment. But this time it may pay to take the opposite view, says Dave Farrar.

CAGLIARI v SAMPDORIA

Sampdoria's season has been slowly deflating over the last couple of weeks, and the bubble may well burst as they travel to Sardinia, and face one of the most hostile environments in Serie A.

Juventus thumped Samp a couple of weeks ago and maybe more worryingly, Bari proved on Sunday that if you stop Antonio Cassano then you snuff out Samp's creative threat. Without him, they look worryingly toothless. As the home side, Cagliari will be under pressure to go forward and so Cassano may get a little more space in which to operate but the recent record of the Sardinians shows that they are upwardly mobile, while Samp may just be going in the opposite direction.

Massimiliano Allegri's team have won their last three and despite a terrible run of form at the start of the season, they look set to challenge for a place in the top 6. The Brazilian striker Nene has finally started to settle, and his two goals against Atalanta last week will have given him bags of confidence.

Having watched Samp closely in their last three outings, I think that their lack of inspiration and support for Cassano, coupled with a fairly thin squad in terms of quality, will make them a team to oppose in coming weeks. And that starts on Sunday.

RECOMMENDATION Back CAGLIARI to beat SAMPDORIA @ [2.56]

INTER v ROMA

This fixture has provided us with some wonderful entertainment over the years, culminating in that terrific 3-3 draw last season. Let's hope that it gives us another barrelful on Sunday night, as the game is live on television here, and has always been a tremendous advert for Serie A.

I feel duty bound to preview Inter v Roma, as it's a fascinating clash between two coaches who really don't like each other, and two teams who know each other very well. Inter are the obvious choice, as Roma are in disarray, and without Francesco Totti they never look quite the same side, but before taking the [1.65] about an Inter win, we have to be very careful.

They had a long midweek trip to Eastern Europe, and while they will be on a high after a dramatic comeback, they may not be at their brilliant domestic best. Roma will be happy to travel away from home given the hostility being shown towards them by their supporters. But they'd be delighted to get away from San Siro with a draw, and I suspect that a combination of a slightly more defensive Roma and a less than fired up Inter might just make for a more cagey game than we would otherwise expect from the fixture.

Over 2.5 goals is currently [1.75], and that looks tradeable at the very least as I'd be amazed if that doesn't go odds-against at some stage. You might want to try and nab a decent price for a 0-0 half time score, but I think that the safest bet is to go against the flow of what usually happens in this fixture and go under 2.5 goals. I'll also be having a small outlay on the 0-0 Correct Score as well, as I have a feeling that these two teams could cancel each other out.

RECOMMENDATION Under 2.5 goals in INTER v ROMA @ [2.28]

0-0 Correct Score @ [17.5]

Aside from those two games, I don't think that there are a great deal of specific punting opportunities this weekend in Serie A, but a couple of observations for you: firstly, Bari v Livorno is almost certain to have under 2.5 goals. All of the statistics point to that, and both sides have shown that they really struggle to convert any of the few chances that they create. The price is short enough at [1.69] but may be one for any weekend accumulators. And the same is true of Milan's visit to Lazio. Lazio are just terrible at the moment, and they have a hopeless home record against Milan. Milan are trading at [2.22] to win on Sunday, and that's a very fair price indeed.