Serie A Betting: Genoa, over 2.5 goals and Groundhog Day

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 18 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

Genoa are the over 2.5 goals kings

"But I’m making no apologies for the fact that, if people keep insisting on laying even money or above on over 2.5 goals in Genoa’s home games, then I’m going to keep putting it up."

Dave Farrar tells us why repetitive bets can be good bets and why AC Milan can prove to us all that last weekend was no more than a minor blip....

GENOA v BARI

When you see a theme developing, and you advise people to keep exploiting it, writing a tipping column feels like Groundhog Day. But I'm making no apologies for the fact that, if people keep insisting on laying even money or above on over 2.5 goals in Genoa's home games, then I'm going to keep putting it up.

Sunday's visitors, Bari, are renowned as the best defensive outfit in Serie A, and they managed to grab a 0-0 draw on their last visit to the Ferraris, when they played Sampdoria, but, to trot out those figures about Genoa again, their home games so far this season have produced the following amount of goals: 5,5,4,5,3,6,3,4. So only once, in the 2-1 win over Fiorentina, has the over 3.5 goals bet failed to pay out, let alone over 2.5.

There are reasons why the price of [2.0] is there this time, given the nature of the opposition. Up until four weeks ago, Bari had the best defence in Serie A, but recently their style has changed, and with Giampiero Ventura's decision to play a more attacking style has come more goals scored by his side and more conceded.

Bari's last four games have all gone over 2.5 and there's no reason why Ventura will suddenly revert to type on Sunday. Sergio Almiron has been quite brilliant in driving them forward, and they'll feel that with Genoa still reeling after their Europa League exit, they can take advantage. So, apologies for the familiar tip, but if they keep winning, then none of us will mind.

RECOMMEMNDATION

Over 2.5 Goals in GENOA v BARI @ [2.0]

FIORENTINA v MILAN

Two of Italy's three Champions League survivors meet on Saturday night in what is a key fixture for both of them before Italy breaks for Christmas. Fiorentina have done wonderfully well to make it through a tough group, but it has had a direct impact on their league form.

Milan somehow managed to string together an unbelievable run of league form, only to see it crash last weekend at home against Palermo. Milan will come out fighting in Florence, and I think that they're a little overpriced to grab the win which would temporarily take them to within two points of the top of the table. I don't think that losing last week means that they're suddenly out of form, it was just a case of Palermo's brilliant counter attacking display catching them off guard.

Fiorentina look set to have a good January with Adrian Mutu back (probably on the bench for this one) and there's always the danger of Alberto Gilardino turning in an inspired display against his old club, but La Viola have lost twice at home this season, to Napoli and Parma, while Milan have won four on the road, so the price on a Rossoneri win on Saturday night looks fair to me.

RECOMMENDATION

Back MILAN to beat FIORENTINA @ [3.0]

UDINESE v CAGLIARI

In the trigger happy world of Italian football, it's a minor miracle that the Udinese coach Pasquale Marino still has a job. Rather like last season, his team have been in terrible form in the run up to Christmas, and yet Marino clings on in a rare miracle of patience.

Udinese have lost four of their last five, and are up against one of the most entertaining and inconsistent sides in the division on Sunday. Cagliari have produced four performances of real note in their last four games and yet only have four points to show for them. With the brilliant Andrea Cossu pulling the strings, and the consistent Alessandro Matri to finish off the chances, Cagliari are more than good enough to win at the Friuli, and there's another bonus for those of you who want to get on the visitors.

Toto Di Natale, who has scored 11 of his team's 19 goals this season, is suspended. Without him, they're half the team, and even with him, they're not much. With Edy Reja being linked with the Udinese job, Marino's luck may be about to run out. But ours could just be in on Sunday, as Cagliari have to be supported. And keep an eye on Matri. If he scores on Sunday, it will be 8 goals in 8 consecutive Serie A games and Gabriel Batistuta's record of 11 will be under threat.

RECOMMENDATION

Back CAGLIARI to beat UDINESE @ [3.7]