Serie A Betting: Fiorentina to cash in on Inter absentees as champions' form goes AWOL

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 28 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Eurosport's Dave Farrar picks out the three best matches for betting on from this midweek's offering, including an away tie for Inter Milan at Fiorentina that may just be too hot to handle.

Roma v Sampdoria

As a massive fan of the work that Luciano Spalletti has done at Roma, I'm sad to see the predicament he finds himself in, but as head, not heart gamblers we should look to take full advantage of Roma's problems. They crumbled again at the weekend in Udine, and there's no reason to suggest that they should be odds-on to win at the Olimpico against Sampdoria.

Samp endured their worst start to a Serie A season for 36 years, but after a UEFA Cup victory in midweek they finally got a first Serie A win at the weekend against Bologna. Samp have missed Claudio Bellucci during their barren run, and it was significant that he got back to scoring form on Sunday. Antonio Cassano will be massively motivated to do well against a club for whom he played quite brilliantly at times, and he could be the man to gleefully push Roma further down the table.

The Stadio Olimpico can be a nightmare for visiting teams when Roma are playing at their destructive best, but on Wednesday evening it may well work against the home side, with the levels of expectation playing into the hands of Walter Mazzari's visitors. Roma are missing Mirko Vucinic and Phillippe Mexes through suspension, and with Aquilani almost certainly out as well, they are weakened right through the spine of the team. Sampdoria haven't won at the Olimpico since 1996, but Wednesday night could be the time that their season catches fire, and that Spalletti waves goodbye to Rome.

RECOMMENDATION Back SAMPDORIA to beat ROMA at [5.5]

Fiorentina v Inter

It could be a night of surprises in Serie A, as Fiorentina are strongly fancied to open up the title race with a win over Inter. La Viola have been in great form after a shaky start, and their Champions League defeat at Bayern Munich was an enormous injustice: Fiorentina were much the better side. They may have needed a controversial Gilardino goal to beat Palermo away on Sunday night, but that was still a mightily impressive result, and it was a game that Fiorentina dominated.

They will miss Gilardino for the visit of Inter after he received a two game suspension, and that's a blow, but still one that Cesare Prandelli's team can overcome. Inter have injury worries of their own and they were desperately flat in their draw against Genoa on Sunday night. Jose Mourinho is starting to feel the heat of the highest pressure job in Italian football, and television cameras caught him swearing at Julio Cruz during Sunday's game. He has vowed that his team will be unrecognisable at the Artemio Franchi and he will be desperate to get a headline grabbing win, but the absences of Sulley Muntari, Vieira and Stankovic weaken their midfield and Mourinho's press conference in Florence on Wednesday night may prove an interesting place to be.

From a punting point of view, it's simple: Fiorentina are one of the best four teams in Serie A, and they're starting to show it. After four consecutive League wins, they're simply too big to beat Inter, even without Gilardino.

FIORENTINA to beat INTER @ [3.45]

Bologna v Juventus

Juventus were my pre season pick for the title, and they're a much better side than recent results have shown: there's just a limit to how many injuries a squad can handle, and Juve have tipped into the red. At one point, Claudio Ranieri had eleven first team players out, and no number of talented youth players can make up for that.

Ranieri has been able to welcome players back for the last two matches, though, and Juve have started to find that spirit which has dragged them through tricky situations in the past. They looked tightly knit against Real Madrid, and the Spanish side couldn't cope with their efficiency and refusal to give up possession cheaply, and they were similarly solid in the derby match against Torino on Saturday night.

One goal was enough then, and it may well be the case at the Dall'Ara, where Bologna's win over Lazio grabbed headlines, but closer analysis showed that the three shots which they hit went in, and one of them was deflected. Bologna are teetering on the brink of relegation, and their insipid defeat at Sampdoria at the weekend was a much better reflection of how poor they are. Juventus shouldn't be as short as they are to keep up their mini revival, and the way that they are setting up themselves up for games at the moment, 1-0 seems the likeliest scoreline.

JUVENTUS to beat BOLOGNA @ [2.0]

JUVENTUS to beat BOLOGNA 1-0 @ [7.2]