Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 23 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Dave Farrar is expecting no shortage of goals in the Palermo/Udinese clash this weekend and can also see a surprise on the cards when Chievo host Milan and Atalanta entertain Parma.

"I’d be surprised if they don’t score at the Renzo Barbera, especially given the absence for Palermo of arguably the best defender in the division, Simon Kjaer."

PALERMO v UDINESE

Even though received wisdom says that home advantage means less now than it used to, that's not as true of Serie A as it is in other leagues, and some teams are entirely different propositions on their own patch. Walter Zenga's Palermo are a case in point. They got their first away win of the season on Sunday at awful Livorno, but they tend to be cagey, tough and happy with a draw. At home, though, they attack from the outset, and try to bring the brilliance of Fabrizio Miccoli and Edinson Cavani into the game as quickly as possible.

Udinese, as has been detailed many times in this column before, love to counter attack, and even though they haven't been at their best lately, I'd be surprised if they don't score at the Renzo Barbera, especially given the absence for Palermo of arguably the best defender in the division, Simon Kjaer.

Several players on either side have already said this week that they're looking forward to the game as it should be an open spectacle, and I think that a match between two similar sides in a more exposed competition like the Premier League would see over 2.5 goals priced at significantly shorter than the [1.9] on offer in this game. That rates as the bet of the week by quite a long way, and is a confident selection.

RECOMMENDATION Over 2.5 Goals in PALERMO v UDINESE @ [1.9]

CHIEVO v MILAN

Looking from a distance, it seems that Leonardo and Milan have turned a corner, and that wins over Roma and, astonishingly, Real Madrid, have set them on a path to success. I'm not so sure. Real's comedy defending, coupled with a fabulous solo performance from Pato, grabbed them the win in the Bernabeu, and they were fortunate to get three points against Roma on Sunday night.

Their defending is still suspect, and, having been mugged by Bari last weekend, a highly motivated Chievo will be desperate to put things right on Sunday night. Of course, if Milan turn on the style, then there is a gulf in class, but remember that this is a team which has scored only three goals away from home all season, and Chievo have had all week to prepare for the visit of the Rossoneri.

I don't think that it will be pretty, but Chievo will let Milan know that they're in a game, and having got over two massive hurdles, it would be just like Milan to turn in a substandard performance after a draining European away game. The workrate of Pellissier, the sheer size of Bogdani, and the impressive prompting of Pinzi could all combine for an upset, and I'm happy to take the chance that Milan's last two results were statistical blips, rather than a sign of regeneration.

RECOMMENDATION CHIEVO to beat MILAN @ [4.1]

ATALANTA v PARMA

The other price which jumped out at me this week was the [4.0] available for Parma to win at Atalanta. There's no question that Atalanta have improved under the guidance of Antonio Conte, but they shouldn't be trading at [2.16] to beat a Parma team which is overachieving this season.

Parma have lost only one game away from home, which was at Inter, and they have already won against Lazio and drawn at Sampdoria and Udinese. Atalanta produced their result of the season last weekend with that remarkable win in Udine, but we'd do well to remember that the first Atalanta goal came about because of a defensive error, and the other two were 30 yard screamers.

They did well, but aside from the goals, there weren't too many signs of improvement, and there's no guarantee that they will immediately add to their first win of the season, especially given their injury problems. Cristiano Doni hasn't looked the player that he was this season, and those 36 year old legs might be starting to let him down. Without his inspiration, Atalanta will struggle to break Parma down.

The 0-0 draw is a big runner here, and Parma have a big chance of a win, but I think that a lay of Atalanta is a rock solid bet, giving us a chance to take advantage of the overreaction to that shock victory last week

RECOMMENDATION Lay ATALANTA against PARMA @ [2.16]

Tags: Atalanta, Chievo, Cristiano Doni, Fabrizio Miccoli, Palermo, Parma, Serie A, Serie A Betting, Simon Kjaer, Udinese, Walter Zenga