Serie A: Evens on Juve is an early Christmas gift

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 19 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Juve's 4-2 defeat of AC Milan last weekend was as much an indication of Juve's superb form as it was of AC Milan's inconsistent displays. Juve are worth backing again this weekend, AC Milan are not, says Dave Farrar.

MILAN v UDINESE

The title race in Italy is rapidly becoming a two horse affair, as both Inter and Juventus stay strong, and Milan seemingly start to fade away. Milan's defeat by Juventus in the big game last weekend was no real surprise as they haven't been playing well for a month, and having been scratching out results, rather than outplaying teams with their customary panache.

Carlo Ancelotti's other headache is that his injury list is starting to hit his squad hard: long term absentee Alessandro Nesta is a big enough miss, but now that Gattuso, Flamini and Kaka are also missing, Milan look bereft of both steel and creativity. As if all of that wasn't bad enough, suspensions will cause them further nightmares on Sunday, with both Ambrosini and Zambrotta out after red cards against Juve. With Milan definitely vulnerable, it's worth taking a chance on Udinese.

They are rapidly becoming the most infuriating team in Serie A: starting the season wonderfully, and then playing terribly for five defeats in a row before producing a stunning first half against Lazio last weekend. All seemed right with the world until they threw a 3-0 lead away in a mad second half. Still, at least their run of defeats is at an end, and at least their talismanic striker Toto Di Natale proved with his two goals that he's back to top form. If Udinese play well and Milan play as I expect them to do, then the visitors are value to shock San Siro, and must be backed.

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ATALANTA v JUVENTUS

Atalanta's home form has been sensational this season, but they can be overrated as a result of it. Gigi Del Neri's team have won six of their eight games at the Azzurri D'Italia, including creditable victories against some fairly big names in the shape of Lazio, Udinese, Napoli and Sampdoria, but their one defeat came at the hands of a class act in the shape of Milan.

Juventus are in sensational form at the moment, having won ten of their last eleven meaningful games, and there is no way that should be even money to get another victory in Bergamo. They won 4-0 in this stadium last year and look to have the tools to either grind out a victory, or, with Amauri in such spectacular form, to outscore Atalanta. And for those of you into your statistics: they are heavily in Juve's favour - Atalanta haven't beaten them here for seven years, and I fully expect that run to continue on Sunday.

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LECCE v BOLOGNA

The developments at both Sunderland and Blackburn Rovers this week have suggested that appointment young managers may not be the way to go, but at Bologna they would wholeheartedly disagree with you. Sinisa Mihailovic is clearly destined for bigger things and the start of his coaching career at Bologna has been outstanding: unbeaten in five, and then adding a first win last week in a 5-2 mauling of Torino.

This is a bona fide relegation battle, with the Lecce coach Mario Beretta desperate for a win after ten games without one. It's tempting to believe that the tension surrounding this game will lead to a cagey, low scoring affair, but these teams aren't going out and playing for 0-0 draws at the moment and there seem certain to be plenty of chances at the Via Del Mare. Four of Bologna's last eight games have produced over 2.5 goals (the other four provided exactly two) and four of Lecce's last five have done the same (the other one had exactly two). Marco Di Vaio of Bologna is the in form striker in Serie A right now, and his presence on the field is a huge plus for anyone who backs over 2.5 goals at what is a big price.

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Those are the three tips for this weekend, but a quick warning to finish. Roma have been very profitable to follow in recent weeks, but there are just signs that their inspired run is coming to an end and they were very lucky to beat Cagliari last weekend.

Much was made in the Italian press about Roma's incredible fighting spirit to come from 2-1 down and snatch a win, and that's fair enough, but the fact remains that they are a team which relies a great deal on the rhythm and tempo at which they can play: they are showing signs of losing that just before the winter break comes at the perfect time for them. There is no way that they should be trading at odds on to win at Catania, whose recent form has been a lot better than their results suggest. I won't suggest laying Roma, but think very carefully before you back them at that price.