Serie A Betting: Carry on Juve...

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 31 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

They're back in form and have key players coming back from injury, so there's no good reason why Juve should be odds-against as they host a struggling Roma, says Dave Farrar. Here are the other best betting opportunities from Serie A this weekend...

JUVENTUS v ROMA

In most Serie A seasons, this game would be absolutely critical with regard to the destination of the Scudetto, but Milan v Napoli has much more relevance to the title than this latest chapter in the sorry tale of Roma. The calling off of Wednesday night's game against Sampdoria means that Roma are just one point away from relegation, and there doesn't seem to be much hope on the horizon.

Roma have lost seven of their eleven games in all competitions this season, and while I don't think that they will be relegated, the top ten can be their only aim at the moment. Roma do get Mexes and Vucinic back from their suspensions, but I don't see that minor boost being enough to lift them to a result against Juventus.

Juve had a sticky patch, and there were calls for the head of Claudio Ranieri, but players are starting to recover from injury, and their form this fortnight is rock solid.

A home win against Real Madrid was followed by victory in the derby against Torino, and then a successful trip to Bologna. On current form there is no way that Juventus should be trading at odds against to beat Roma, who have the second worst defence in Serie A. Juventus have made a decent profit for this column in recent weeks, and we should keep the faith. I happen to think that Roma could be on the wrong end of a heavy defeat, and [15.0] is way too big a price for the "Any Unquoted" Correct Score.

JUVENTUS to beat ROMA @ [2.12]

"ANY UNQUOTED" CORRECT SCORE @ [15.0]

MILAN v NAPOLI

Dan Fitch will preview this game in more detail elsewhere, but my thoughts on the unmissable Sunday night match from San Siro are briefly that Milan were as poor against Siena in midweek as Napoli were excellent against Reggina. Any team with Edy Reja as coach and Lavezzi and Denis up front shouldn't be trading at [6.2] to win anywhere. I don't think that Napoli will win the title this season, but you really can't exaggerate just how important it is for Italian football that they are back, and challenging for the title.

Last week Napoli went to the Olimpico and won a low scoring game against Lazio, and the same thing might happen in a Sunday night shock. So Napoli to win in the week that their most famous player announces that he is returning to football. And Napoli to score at a generous [1.6] on the basis that the price is just too big.

RECOMMENDATION NAPOLI to win at MILAN at [6.2]

"NO" to MILAN CLEAN SHEET @ [1.6]

SAMPDORIA v TORINO

Sampdoria were frustrated on Wednesday by the Roman rain, as their players felt that they had a real chance of a rare win at the Olimpico. Torino finally got their first win since the opening day on that midweek matchday, but I don't see their good run continuing in Genoa.

Torino's key man in that victory over Atalanta was the youngster Ignazio Abate who came on a second half substitute and changed the game. He is almost certainly out of this one with injury though, and the tension between coach De Biasi and Torino's most talented player Alessandro Rosina won't help the mood in the camp.

Sampdoria are at somewhere near full strength, with Antonio Cassano their key man as always. This was the fixture last season in which Cassano threw his shirt at the referee after being sent off and I expect him to be fired up in all of the right ways this time, and lead Samp away from the relegation zone.

SAMPDORIA on the ASIAN HANDICAP - 0.5 and -1.0 @ [2.04]

Two other things to bear in mind this weekend: if you're thinking of backing Fiorentina at what seems like a big price to win at Siena, remember that this is one of the more passionate derby games in Italy and Siena may just be inspired enough to deny Fiorentina. La Viola are still without Gilardino and probably without Mutu, and they have a big Champions League game at home to Bayern to come next week. Leave them well alone. And Udinese v Genoa is the game which finished 3-5 last season and over 2.5 goals is trading at [2.08]. It's not one of my headline selections, but I wouldn't put you off.