Serie A Betting: Be all over over-priced Inter

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 26 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Diego Milito is in good form and will be confident after scoring against Chelsea in midweek

"Even though the back four will look strange, and possibly include a new face in Luca Caldirola, Inter’s backup players are still better than Udinese’s first teamers, and pushing out their price because of absentees is an overreaction."

Dave Farrar tells us how the Betfair markets have over-reacted to Inter Milan's absentees on Sunday afternoon and why value-wise, a depleted Inter Milan side are a good bet to go to Udinese and pick up all three points.

UDINESE v INTER

After their dramatic comeback against Cagliari in midweek, a result which gave Pasquale Marino's new spell in charge its best possible start, Udinese welcome Inter to the Friuli, hoping to claim a huge scalp as they look to move further away from the relegation zone. My instinct was to tip Udinese to pick up a shock win, as they have momentum and Inter went through a tough midweek game. But, given Jose Mourinho's record of motivating his side on post Champions League weekends, I can't help but feel that the prices are all wrong, and that Inter are far too big to pick up a win themselves.

Inter have huge problems with suspensions, and there'll be no Walter Samuel or Ivan Cordoba, Esteban Cambiasso or Sulley Muntari, but it's not as if the Nerazzurri, with Roma and Milan breathing down their necks, can afford to be anything less than fully motivated, and in fact their performance against Chelsea will have given them great heart, after drawing three successive League matches.

Mourinho knows that Roma have a difficult trip to Naples to negotiate, and this could be the chance to put decisive clear water between Inter and their closest challengers. Remember that Inter still have to go to Rome at the end of the month, and Mourinho will want the title won by then.

And, to be frank, Udinese are as close to a one man team as it's possible to get. Antonio Di Natale is brilliant, the rest average. Di Natale has scored 18 of Udinese's 30 goals this season, and with Floro Flores chipping in with 7, only 5 other players have managed to find the back of the net this season. I'm not a huge fan of Edinson Floro Flores, so if Inter can stop Toto, then they'll stop Udinese from scoring.

Even though the back 4 will look strange, and possibly include a new face in Luca Caldirola, Inter's backup players are still better than Udinese's first teamers, and pushing out their price because of absentees is an overreaction. In previous weekends following Champions League matches, Inter have beaten Fiorentina, drawn with Roma, and beaten Sunday's opponents, although they needed a last minute goal to do it. Sunday should be more comfortable, and Inter shouldn't be trading at odds against.

RECOMMENDATION Back INTER to beat UDINESE @ [2.28]

NAPOLI v ROMA

The atmosphere of the weekend will unquestionably be in Naples, where a fierce and slightly frightening local rivalry is renewed. It wasn't ever thus, but since several incidents in recent years, these clubs do not like each other and the San Paolo will be at breaking point as the home team try and reset their sights on fourth place. Napoli's problems are in front of goal, and while the return of Ezequiel Lavezzi will help in that regard, he's hardly prolific, and Roma will be tough to break down.

Seven of Napoli's last eight home games have produced under 2.5 goals, and the last three have finished 0-0. I was surprised to see under 2.5 goals available to back at [1.9], as Roma aren't the free flowing force that they used to be. When a team opens up against Roma, then they will respond in kind, but their policy in Naples will be to keep very tight and try to win the game 1-0. Claudio Ranieri is also short of attacking options, with Francesco Totti and Luca Toni out, which means that he'll play Mirko Vucinic as the lone striker, and hope that they can create a chance or two, and nick a win. I'd priced the unders up a lot shorter than this, and so any price down to [1.82] is well worth taking.

RECOMMENDATION Back Under 2.5 Goals in NAPOLI v ROMA @ [1.9]

JUVENTUS v PALERMO

Juventus have finally found some form under Alberto Zaccheroni, and their supporters must be wondering why Ciro Ferrara wasn't sacked sooner. Juve have been playing free flowing football, and with Alessandro Del Piero restored to the side, and Diego playing like he did in Germany, they've rediscovered the art of goalscoring.

Amauri will probably be absent on Sunday, but David Trezeguet isn't the worst replacement. Both of Juve's last Serie A games have featured over 2.5 goals, and the fact that they're porous at the back adds to the chance of that outcome on Sunday night. Palermo's last five games have all featured over 2.5, and they will go to Turin believing that they can win, and I expect them to go all out. Fabrizio Miccoli and Antonio Cavani could torment Juve's back line, but at the other end Zaccheroni's side have the tools to score a couple as well. This should be a real Sunday night classic on ESPN, and I wouldn't put you off going over 3.5 and 4.5 as well.

RECOMMENDATION Over 2.5 Goals in JUVENTUS v PALERMO @ [2.0]