Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 02 October 2009 / 1 Comments

It may be stating the obvious but AC Milan are vulnerable at the moment and Atalanta are a team who can make life even more complicated for them, says Dave Farrar.

"I wouldn’t put you off a bet on the 0-0 correct score at 11.0, a 1-0 Atalanta win at 12.0, or under 2.5 goals at 1.8, but on the balance of the prices, I think that the best bet is to back Atalanta to get their first win of the season and get Leonardo the sack."

ATALANTA v MILAN

After tipping Bari to win at San Siro last weekend, watching them outplay Leonardo's team and failing to score, and then seeing Zurich go and grab the result that Bari ought to have done....well, it's been a tough week. The reasons for opposing Milan are still valid, though. They are in dreadful form: disjointed, defensively inept, seemingly unable to score, and rapidly losing faith in a manager whose inexperience is starting to look more obvious by the week.

The question in Bergamo on Sunday is whether Atalanta are good enough to beat them. Atalanta have scored only twice this season, and so don't expect for a minute that they are capable of thrashing Milan, but Antonio Conte has improved them in his two games in charge, and this may be the day that he inspires them to a first win of the season.

They were dominated for long periods by Chievo last week, but showed admirable spirit defensively, and would have forced a win if it hadn't been for a comical defensive error. They have a decent record here over Milan in recent years, and given the travails of the Rossoneri, I fully expected them to be trading a lot shorter than [3.6] to win the game.

The danger in backing Atalanta is that Milan find their form and start converting chances (they hit the post three times against Zurich) and that the 0-0 is also a big runner, but at the prices, I think we have to take a chance on Conte's team. Cristiano Doni is still one of the best attacking players in the division, and even though his legs are starting to betray him a little, he does have a habit of saving his moments of genius for the big clubs.

There are several options in what is likely to be a tight, low scoring game. I wouldn't put you off a bet on the 0-0 correct score at [11.0], a 1-0 Atalanta win at [12.0], or under 2.5 goals at [1.8], but on the balance of the prices, I think that the best bet is to back Atalanta to get their first win of the season and get Leonardo the sack.

RECOMMENDATION Back ATALANTA to beat MILAN @ [3.6]

SAMPDORIA v PARMA

I wrongly thought that Sampdoria and Inter would produce goals last weekend, but in the end Inter looked toothless and Samp scrambled the late win which means that they are looking down on the rest from the top of the Serie A table.

It was a lively game, though, and there's no logical reason to desert Samp and their ability to both score and concede goals at home. Parma have scored twice in two of their three away games so far (it was only Inter that kept them out) and this looks likely to be one of those entertaining games that were so sorely lacking in a desperately dull set of fixtures last weekend.

Parma were beaten at home by Cagliari last time out, and their coach Francesco Guidolin was honest enough to admit that he got everything wrong with his tactics and his team selection. He will make changes for this one, and is likely to field the team which won 2-1 at Lazio the previous week. With Samp starting to score goals from everywhere and not relying too much on their "goal twins", a price of [1.95] on there being three goals or more seems more than fair, and if you want to try and get [7.0] matched on over 4.5 then it wouldn't be the most stupid play ever.

RECOMMENDATION Back over 2.5 goals in SAMPDORIA v PARMA @ [1.95]

Tags: Antonio Cassano, italian football matches, Itlian football tips, Leonardo manager, Serie A betting