Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 16 October 2009 / Leave a comment

A late, late equaliser from Ronaldinho has saved Leonardo's job for the time being but the visit of Roma to the San Ciro has the potential to pile on more misery on the Milan coach. Their captain and talisman Francesco Totti is struggling to be fit but if he is, Roma look a cracking bet, says Dave Farrar.

"Because, make no mistake, without Totti, Roma are decent value at [3.7] to win a fourth consecutive Serie A game at San Siro against Milan. With him in the side, it’s a price which simply must be snapped up."

MILAN v ROMA

Before Italy's bizarre foray onto the international stage (5 goals for, 4 against, in two games - they're the new Brazil folks), all of the talk in Serie A was about the future of the Milan coach Leonardo.

The two week gap seemed to give the Rossoneri the perfect window in which to replace the Brazilian, but Ronaldinho's late, late equaliser against Atalanta saved his coach. Lucky Leo knows now that his team has to improve swiftly, and a discussion with some of his senior players means that he's set to change to a more traditional 4-4-2 system of play, but there has to be a huge doubt about whether that will improve Milan's results.

After their home game against Roma, Milan have to go to Real Madrid, Chievo and Napoli, and so if they're beaten this Sunday evening, then Leonardo will surely need a series of miracles to survive. Roma have been in excellent form under Claudio Ranieri, though, having won three of their last five games in the League.

They seem to have rediscovered a real fighting spirit, and the only cloud which surrounds them ahead of this game is whether Francesco Totti will be passed fit. Even though his troublesome knees stop him from being the fabulous player that he was five years ago, Totti is still the maestro that makes Roma tick, and before having a significant bet on this game you definitely need to take a look at team news.

Because, make no mistake, without Totti, Roma are decent value at [3.7] to win a fourth consecutive Serie A game at San Siro against Milan. With him in the side, it's a price which simply must be snapped up.

RECOMMENDATION ROMA to beat MILAN @ [3.7]

CHIEVO v BARI

There's a first ever Serie A encounter at the Bentegodi on Sunday afternoon, as two of the season's real form horses, Chievo and Bari, go head to head. Chievo might have started the season poorly, but have powered into form in recent weeks, winning three and drawing two of their last five.

Bari have already managed two draws at San Siro this season, and have proved particularly adept away from home, drawing all three of their games against tricky opposition. They still have a lengthy injury list, which means that their coach Giampiero Ventura deserves even more credit than he would otherwise have got for getting them into this position.

It also means that they're likely to be happy with yet another draw away from home, and I see this as being a close, and pretty turgid encounter. Two of Chievo's three home games so far have produced over 2.5 goals, but they haven't come up against too many teams who will be as attritional as a very well organised Bari. A low scoring stalemate is most likely, and the 0-0 Correct Score in particular looks a shade on the big side at [9.6].

RECOMMENDATION DRAW between CHIEVO and BARI @ [3.2]

0-0 Correct Score @ [9.6]

JUVENTUS v FIORENTINA

If it's a proper slice of good, old fashioned hatred that you want this weekend then look no further than the Stadio Olimpico in Turin. It all goes back to the day that Juve stole Roby Baggio, and the enmity still burns very bright.

Fiorentina have once again been quietly overachieving so far, and Cesare Prandelli will fancy that his team can get something from a Juve side which hasn't won in four games. This is another game which is set to be tight, and if it is decided, it's likely to be by the odd goal.

The most interesting statistic for betting purposes is that only one of Fiorentina's last ten competitive games has produced over 2.5 goals, and only one of Juve's last seven has gone over 2.5. I was surprised to see that someone was prepared to lay me [1.92] about under 2.5 goals, and based on the stats that has to be the call in Turin.

RECOMMENDATION Under 2.5 Goals in JUVENTUS v FIORENTINA @ [1.92]

Tags: AC Milan, Francesco Totti, Italian football betting, italian football fixtures, Serie A odds