Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 30 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Dave Farrar has analysed all this weekend's Serie A Fixtures and picked the three matches worth having a betting interest in, including taking a gamble that Sampdoria, mauled midweek against Juventus, will struggle once again.

"Samp have been massively impressively at the Ferraris, but Parma managed to go there and get a point, and Bari will be no pushovers."

LIVORNO v INTER

After they were involved in an eight goal thriller on Thursday night, it may seem a little dangerous to suggest that Inter Milan won't be at their brilliant goalscoring best best on Sunday in Tuscany, but there are reasons to think that Jose Mourinho's side will be in the mood to do just enough when they visit Serse Cosmi's Livorno.

Inter have a huge Champions League game in Kiev on Wednesday, and they also have serious injury problems in forward areas. Balotelli and Eto'o both went off injured on Thursday, and even if either is fit for the weekend, they won't be risked, which will leave Inter anything but free flowing and goal hungry.

Livorno will fancy their chances of causing a shock, but with their talismanic striker Cristiano Lucarelli suspended, they're also short of a goal threat, and with only 5 goals scored in the 5 Livorno home games so far (including two 0-0 draws), under 2.5 goals rates a standout bet at [1.8].

This price would be a lot shorter if the opposition was any side other than Inter, but if you take the view that Mourinho will be prepared to contain and grab a narrow win, rather than ask his side to go out and be destructive, then it's hard to see anything other than an away win by the odd goal. That said, the 0-0 draw is a major runner as well. Without Lucarelli, Livorno are unlikely to score, and so the advice is to back the unders, and take a punt on a Correct Score as well.

RECOMMENDATION Under 2.5 goals in LIVORNO v INTER @ [1.8]

Inter to win 1-0 @ [6.6]

PALERMO v GENOA

Having tipped (and backed) over 2.5 goals in Palermo's home game with Udinese last week, and watched a wide open game produce only one goal, it was pretty galling to then see Walter Zenga's team score three at Inter.

This weekend, the men in pink take on the most entertaining team in the division, Genoa, and goals simply has to be the call again. Eight of Genoa's ten matches in Serie A so far have produced over 2.5 goals, with all but one of those eight also giving up 3.5.

Palermo do like to go forward at home, and are playing with some confidence at the moment. The styles of both sides really should make the game here: neither will feel that they can win to nil, and as a result it's easy to see both going forward right from the start. It should be a thriller, and has the added bonus of being an evening game.

Odd though it sounds, the statistics do back up the perception that evening games in Serie A produce more goals than those played in the afternoon. I'm quite surprised to see over 2.5 goals trading at around the even money mark, and so that's the selection, even though I wouldn't put you off getting involved in the over 3.5 and 4.5 markets as well.

RECOMMENDATION Over 2.5 Goals in PALERMO v GENOA @ [1.98]

SAMPDORIA v BARI

Sampdoria came down to earth with an Amauri shaped bang on Wednesday, and so the first thought about the visit of Bari on Sunday is that Samp will react positively and take out their anger on the visitors.

I'm not so sure and it's worth a speculative wager on Bari causing an upset in Genova. Bari are a different team away than they are at home, and their midweek defeat by an inspired Parma was their first on their travels. There wasn't much that Bari could do about the brilliance of Valeri Bojinov, and so I'm prepared to forgive them that slip, and while there's a danger that Samp could blow Bari away, I think that it's a leap of faith worth taking.

Samp have been massively impressively at the Ferraris, but Parma managed to go there and get a point, and Bari will be no pushovers. It's by no means the standout bet of the week, but a lay of the home team is worth a small investment.

RECOMMENDATION Lay SAMPDORIA v BARI at [1.73]

Tags: Anonio Cassano, Italian football fixtures, italian football odds, Sampdoria, Serie A betting, Walter Zenga