Serie A Betting: A betting weekend of two Milans

Italian Football / Dave Farrar / 05 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Diego Milito

"I think that they’re good enough to cope, and given that Inter will definitely miss Wesley Sneijder and Lucio, and could also be without Eto’o and Stankovic, Cagliari certainly have a chance of at least holding Mourinho’s side."

One of the two Milans is a good price to win away from home this weekend whilst the other is a short price to win their match and worth taking on in the asian handicap. Dave Farrar tells us which is which.

FIORENTINA v ROMA

Fiorentina may be the Italian side which is best placed to progress in the Champions League, but their domestic form is falling apart. They were lucky to escape from Cagliari with a draw last week, and a run of just one win in four games means that they're now eleventh in the table. Their failure to sign Antonio Cassano in the transfer window means that there's a large Adrian Mutu shaped hole in the side, and on Sunday Cesare Prandelli has to find a way to beat an in-form Roma.

Claudio Ranieri's team are now unbeaten in eighteen games in all competitions, and have won all but three of those. If it hadn't been for a poor start to the season, it would be they, and not Milan, who would be the main challengers to Inter at the top. Roma will be without Luca Toni, which may explain their price of [3.15], but they are more than capable of winning without him, and they rate an excellent bet to come away from Florence with the win that could take them to 2nd in the table, and leave them with an outside chance of winning Serie A. Fiorentina are without their central defender Felipe, which should make Roma's task a little easier, and the visitors should definitely be shorter than they are.

RECOMMENDATION

Back ROMA to beat FIORENTINA @ [3.15]

BOLOGNA v MILAN

Because Bologna are in good form, and because Milan have struggled since losing the derby two weeks ago, it's tempting to get sucked into the idea that Marco Di Vaio and co could pull off a shock on Sunday. But it would be a shock, and I'm not sure that the prices reflect that.

Milan were disappointing last weekend against Livorno, but they still played well enough to win the game, and they shouldn't be as big as [1.86] to outclass a hardworking, but frankly uninspired, Bologna. Di Vaio is in great form, scoring four times in his last four games, but he will come up against Milan's top central defensive pairing of Thiago Silva and Alessandro Nesta, and Nesta's return should give the team enough solidity to come away with three points.

Milan have lost only one of the six games that those two have started, and there's a sense that, with the derby defeat out of their system, Milan are ready to bounce back to form. The perception that Milan are out of form and that they'll be focusing on their Champions League date with Manchester United means that they're far too big to win a game for which they'd normally be huge favourites. They may be odds on, but they're still too big.

RECOMMENDATION

Back MILAN to beat BOLOGNA @ [1.86]

INTER v CAGLIARI

If there is to be a shock this weekend, then it may come at San Siro, where the newly crowned coach of the year, Massimiliano Allegri, takes his Cagliari side to face Inter.

Both teams have injury problems, with Cagliari likely to play their third choice goalkeeper and missing their chief creative force, Andrea Cossu. I think that they're good enough to cope, and given that Inter will definitely miss Wesley Sneijder and Lucio, and could also be without Eto'o and Stankovic, Cagliari certainly have a chance of at least holding Mourinho's side. They've already proved this season that they're not in awe of San Siro, having lost 4-3 to Milan, and Inter have only won this fixture by more than a single goal once in the last six meetings.

Cagliari can be supported on the Asian Handicap with a goal and goal and a half start at around the even money mark. If you're brave, then you may want to take the [10.0] about a Cagliari win, or lay Inter at a short price, but I'll play the Handicap, and keep a single goal defeat on my side as well.

RECOMMENDATION

Back CAGLIARI +1.0 and +1.5 v INTER @ [2.0]