Italian Football / Matthew Walton / 11 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

Make sure you watch David Beckham's AC Milan take on Jose Mourinho's Inter on Betfair Live Video this Sunday. Before then, Matthew Walton offers hints on how to find the value in one of world football's fiercest rivalries.

Every country has its fair share of domestic rivalries. Many are local derbies, built on the premise that familiarity breeds contempt. Others are simply long-standing feuds between clubs as their fans somehow manage to continue hostilities despite being separated by some distance.

But it's the matches which split a city in two which tend to capture one's imagination. Whether it's Celtic/Rangers (Glasgow), Partisan/Red Star (Belgrade), Olympiakos/Panathinaikos (Athens) or Spartak/CSKA (Moscow) there's nothing like friends, family and fans being split down the middle - you're either one of the other.

A renewal of one of the biggest of these rivalries comes this weekend in Italy as Inter face AC in the Milan derby. Staged in their shared stadium, the San Siro, this promises to be another gripping chapter in their perennial battle - more so, as they currently lie first and second in the Serie A table.

As ever it will provide no end of public speculation, media coverage, partisan punditry and, for our purposes here, betting activity on Betfair.

With this in mind we've been trawling through the record books to unearth a few interesting facts and figures about the Milan derby ... and have applied them to the weekend's betting markets, ever mindful of the theory that some might say 'the formbook goes out of the window' in these sort of matches. Well, does it?

One thing which does strike you when looking through the figures is the fact that these two sides have been pretty evenly matched over the years. A total of 198 matches in all competitions has provided 68 wins for Inter, 69 for AC and 61 draws. Moreover, Inter have scored 270 goals in these matches ... and AC have scored 269! No surprise as both teams, along with Juventus, have dominated Serie A over the years - AC landing 17 titles whilst Inter have won 16 scudetto's.

In terms of the Betfair markets available, one obvious point (mentioned above) is that the match is a 'home' game for Inter and an 'away' game for AC in name only. Short of getting changed in a different dressing room this match is like any other home game for the Rossinieri - but many punters will ignore this fact.

Match Odds

This is a tough market to call and, given the data of previous meetings, not one we're going to concentrate on too much. Suffice it to say, given the ground-sharing nature of the San Siro remember not to read too much into Inter's very good home form this season (P11 W8 D3 L0) or AC's moderate away form (P11 W4 D4 L3).

Furthermore, over the last 10 seasons when AC have been the 'home' team they have won four times, there have been three draws and Inter have won three times. However, when Inter have been the nominal 'home' side they have only won three, with one match drawn and AC winning on six occasions.

All this makes AC a better 'away' side when playing at 'home' - got it? This makes Inter [2.32] look a little skinny when compared to AC at [3.60].

Correct Score

Looking at the respective matches for each side this season, both Inter (4/23 or 17%) and AC (6/23 or 26%) have the 1-0 win as their most frequent scoreline. Go back over this fixture for the last ten seasons and of those 20 meetings you also find the 1-0 score as the most common result (5/20 or 25%) along with the 2-1 score (also 5/20 or 25%).

Both suggest that should either side win, it'll be by the odd goal - incidentally, Inter have won 2-1 three times this season and AC have either won or lost 2-1 three times.

This would suggest a spread of Inter to win 1-0 [9.0] or 2-1 [10.0] as a possibility whilst the best option for AC would also be a narrow 1-0 [12.0] or 2-1 [13.0] victory.

Over/Under Market

If you want to include every single match between the sides, the average number of goals per game is 2.72. That's the full list of 198 matches!

Cut that down to the last 10 seasons and you find 65 goals in the last 20 San Siro derby matches, another very healthy average of 3.25 goals per game.

Isolate that even further to this season and in 23 league matches the average for Inter is 2.43 goals per game (56 in 23) whilst for AC it's 2.73 (63 in 23).

Three semi-related sets of figures which all point to an 'over' on both the 1.5 market - albeit at a short price [1.36] - as well as the 2.5 market where the price [2.1] is much more attractive.

Half-Time

An interesting point, worthy of making on the back of our analysis, concerns another common misunderstanding borne out of neither of these teams really being 'home' or 'away' in this match.

Bizarrely when AC are designated as the home side, they've only led at the break in one of the last 10 derbies. When Inter are the home side, they've led at the break on just two occasions.

However, as the away side AC have led in five of the last 10 matches against Inter. A 50% strike rate which would suggest odds of [2.0] ... but you'll find bigger than [4.0] on Betfair. Why? Because many traders, for some reason, think AC really are away from home and therefore approach the markets under this misconception.

Bookings Odds/Index & Sendings Off

Derby games are traditionally lively affairs and if this season's earlier meeting is anything to go by there should be plenty of action this weekend. In that September meeting there were seven yellow cards, one yellow leading to a red and one straight red. Making up at 130 on the Bookings Index or 26 on the Betting Odds.

In terms of red cards, Marco Materazzi's sending off in that match was his second early bath in this fixture in three years (first time 2006/07). Nicolas Burdisso, who also got his marching orders in the September game, and Ivan Cordoba (2002/03) are the only players to go off in the last six seasons. All coincidentally are Inter players.

With over 75 bookings (and 4 sendings off) in the last 13 meetings it would be no surprise to see the Bookings Index making up at 60 or above and the Betting Odds comfortably reaching double figures.

As for a sending off? If there's any 'afters' following on from the last match this market has to considered. Any price upwards of [5.0] might well be worthy of an interest.

In the above discussion we've highlighted a number of different markets which illustrate the clear divide between the statistics and the market. This is where value is found and where profits are to be made ... by you!

A key match in terms of bragging rights in Milan but possibly AC's last chance to catch the league leaders - this game offers a host of possibilities to the clued-up trader.

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