Bettorlogic's Injuries And Suspensions Column

Italian Football / Bettorlogic / 18 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Diego's absence for Juventus significantly decreases the chances of them having an over 2.5 goals match against Livorno.

"Last season at Werder Bremen, Diego played 21 of 34 matches and was instrumental as their playmaker; Bremen scoring 47 goals with him compared to just 17 without, a 42% drop in goals scored per game when he was missing."

Bettorlogic talk us through the key absentees from the main European Leagues this week and tell us how we as punters, can profit from their absences.

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Bettorlogic have compiled a report using our player analysis tool Player PRO highlighting the most important players that are likely to be missing across Europe's major leagues this weekend.

NB Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least an hour of the match unless otherwise stated. The sample is based on a team's home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

Juventus v Livorno

Diego

Juventus are without their big money summer signing Diego, who picked up a thigh strain against Lazio. The Brazilian has made a sensational start to his Juve career, with two goals in his second match away at Roma and looks likely to be crucial to the Bianconeri's chance of claiming the Scudetto this season.

Last season at Werder Bremen, Diego played 21 of 34 matches and was instrumental as their playmaker; Bremen scoring 47 goals with him compared to just 17 without, a 42% drop in goals scored per game when he was missing. Diego's own goals return was a crucial part of this, the midfielder finding the net on 12 occasions - and the number of matches with three or more goals falling from 76% to just 38% when he didn't play.

Juventus will still expect to win against newly promoted Livorno but without Diego it could be less emphatic - and we think there's value in under 2.5 goals at [2.14].

Round-up

Cagliari v Inter Milan

Cagliari have endured a tough start to the season and a clash with the champions of the past four years Inter is unlikely to cure their summer hangover. Jose Mourinho's side have looked in intimidating form in their past two matches, scoring six goals without reply - and can expect to add to that tally against a Cagliari side missing veteran Uruguayan Diego Lopez and rising star Francesco Pisano from their defence.

Lopez has played 31 of Cagliari's 41 matches since the start of last season, the Islanders conceding 19 goals in the 10 matches he's missed, compared with 35 in those that he's played - a 68% increase when he's been absent. Although Cagliari have lost just three of the 10 Lopez has missed, all of them have been by at least a two goal margin.

Pisano has missed 12 of Cagliari's 41 matches since the start of last season and results have suffered without the lightning fast fullback - their average points per game falling from 1.45 to 1.0 when he's absent.

Inter can take advantage of Cagliari's poor start and lack of key defenders to record a comfortable victory and [2.20] on Inter -1.0 goal on the Asian handicap looks excellent value.

Osasuna v Sevilla

Osasuna defender Nacho Monreal recently won his first cap for Spain but will be missing from the clash at home against Sevilla this weekend due to suspension. Since the start of last season, Monreal has played 27 of Osasuna's 40 matches and while the Pamplona based team have performed relatively well with him (W9-D10-L8) their results without him have been dismal, with just one win and eight defeats.

Both teams played newly promoted teams last week and while Osasuna fell to defeat against Tenerife, Sevilla thumped Real Zaragoza and we expect them to build on that here to claim another three points at [2.28].

Lorient v Nancy

Nancy travel to Lorient without their Moroccan international defender Michael Chretien, who has joined Issiar Dia on the injury list. Chretien has played 23 of 43 matches for Nancy since the start of last season and while Nancy have lost 35% of their matches with him, they've lost half their games without him, their average goals conceded rising from 1.09 per game to 1.40.

While the absence of Chretien has weakened their defence, the absence of Dia has substantially affected their attack. In 21 matches with Dia Nancy have won eight and lost six times, scoring 30 goals while in 22 games without him, they've won only four times and lost on 12 occasions, scoring just 17 goals. This sequence includes a meagre two points from the last 10 matches he has missed.

Lorient are odds-against to repeat their win in this fixture last season - and look excellent value at [2.18] to take all three points this weekend.