World Cup Qualifiers: Portuguese hot-shots enter last-chance saloon

Internationals / Tobias Gourlay / 05 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

It's about time Cristiano Ronaldo did something in international football

"All of Quieroz’s biggest names are available to him; even so, he will still be without the world-class striker that might have helped his team score more than eight goals in six games."

Tobias Gourlay introduces you to three World Cup qualifiers that might not otherwise have caught your eye.

Denmark v Portugal

The most important of the three games this article rounds-up is in Group One, where Denmark entertain Portugal. The Scandinavians have been poor in recent home friendlies - they have lost 3/3 to Spain, Wales and Chile since August last year - but are top of the group because they have produced good results in more important matches. Coach Morten Olsen has lost nine of his usual squad members to injury, but very few of the missing players are regular starters.

Portugal, the ante-post favourites to win the group, have managed two wins in six matches so far, but did take three points from their last away game in Albania and their other victory also came on the road. In the next week, they need away wins against the two teams above them to give themselves a shot at qualification for South Africa 2010. Strong showings in recent years under Luis Felipe Scolari - not, it should be noted, current boss Carlos Quieroz - make them the [2.28] favourites to win on Saturday.

All of Quieroz's biggest names are available to him; even so, he will still be without the world-class striker that might have helped his team score more than eight goals in six games. The two they managed in defeat to Denmark are the only two the Danes have conceded.

The Iberians have lost a couple of European Championship qualifiers since 1996, but their record on the road in World Cup qualifiers since then is W10-D7-L0. Some of those opponents have been as good as Denmark seem to be now; others most definitely have not. If Scolari was in charge - Jose Mourinho, even - taking the Selecao -0 ([1.61]) on the Asian handicap (or the equivalent Draw No Bet market) would be more tempting than it is with a capable Number Two but unproven Number One like Quieroz.

Spain v Belgium

Spain's long unbeaten run was ended by the USA in the Confederations Cup over the summer, but the European champions still have a 100% record after six matches in World Cup Qualifying Group Five and are [1.20] to beat Belgium on Saturday. A single point will ensure a first-place finish for the Spaniards. The performances have perhaps not quite matched the results, however; coach Vicente Del Bosque admitted that the team played poorly against Bosnia, and last-minute winners were required against Turkey and in the reverse fixture with Belgium. Those late goals might raise interest in the Draw/Spain double result at [3.7], which has paid out in two of Spain's three home wins so far.

Despite the lack of gloss, the visitors from the Low Countries are likely to struggle at Deportivo La Coruna's Riazor stadium. Thus far they have lost 2-1 in Bosnia and drawn 1-1 in Turkey. Going further back, they went W2-D1-L4 in not qualifying for Euro 2008, failing to lose only in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Armenia. The goal in Bosnia broke a run of not scoring in 11 competitive away defeats since 1997 - the Spain Clean Sheet is [1.65] - although they have scored in six of their most recent seven away games, including friendlies.

Now, here's a remarkable thing. Del Bosque's men have not conceded in 270 minutes of home Group Five action so far. Those three wins have taken La Furia Roja's home record in World Cup qualifiers to W30-D3-L0 since 1976. Twenty-four of those wins came with clean sheets. There's no betting against the home favourites then, and the Clean Sheet market is the one to keep an eye on.

Switzerland v Greece

The third game to ponder is Switzerland's match with Greece. Not one for the purist, certainly, but this is the clash of the two best teams in (weak) Group Two so far. They have identical W4-D1-L1 records and are both three points clear of third-placed Latvia.

Embarrassingly, Switzerland's defeat came at home to Luxembourg (1-2). Since then they have managed to see off Latvia (2-1) and Moldova (2-0). They beat the 2004 European champions 2-1 in the reverse fixture.

Greece were surprising champions of Europe and the widespread perception is that they have under-whelmed as such ever since. Fair enough, probably, but they do have a robust record in away qualifiers. Since victory in Portugal, they have lost only twice on the road and are unbeaten in nine matches and almost four years. They have scored in 13/15, including all of the most recent nine.

There might then be some value in siding with Greece somehow. They are [3.75] to win outright, which is what they have done in seven of the nine matches in their unbeaten run. But it's not yet clear whether they will be pushing all-out for victory or settling for a draw, so the comfort of Greece +0.5 on the Asian handicap might be preferable at [1.72].

Best Bet: Back Greece +0.5 at [1.72] on the Asian handicap v Switzerland