Euro 2012 Qualifying Betting: Estonia v Italy

Internationals / Tobias Gourlay / 02 September 2010 / Leave a Comment

New Italian coach Cesare Prandelli should have worked out how to beat Estonia by now.

"The Italian defence will include some new faces, but they should be encouraged by Estonia’s poor scoring record."

Tobias Gourlay is Tallinn it like it is ahead of Italy's trip to Estonia.

Cesare Prandelli's squad for his first competitive game in charge of the Azzurri includes four uncapped defenders, another possible debutant in midfield and only one player, the fit-again Andrea Pirlo, from the Milan clubs. But the recently deposed world champions have won all four of their previous meetings with Estonia, went unbeaten away from home in 2010 World Cup qualifying and should still be alright against their fellow Blue Shirts, who started Euro 2012 qualifying with a squeaky-bum home win over the Faroe Islands last month.

Mario Balotelli is injured, but Giampaolo Pazzini can do his job on the field and Antonio Cassano has all the antics to cover for him off the field. The Italian defence will include some new faces, but they should be encouraged by Estonia's poor scoring record. The Baltic nation has failed to find the back of the net in all of its most recent eight home qualifying defeats and in 11 of its last 12. The Italy Win to Nil, which has paid out in half of the Azzurri's 14 qualifying away wins since the turn of the millennium, should become available somewhere better than evens.

The numbers don't reveal anything of much interest to Asian handicappers or over/under goals bettors, but, if you are concerned by Italy's defensive inexperience - remember that Gigi Buffon won't be in Tallinn on Friday - then you could think about using a 2-1 Correct Score bet ([10.0]) on them to cover that Win to Nil wager. It's been the final result in five of the 14 wins we mentioned above.

Best Bet: Back Italy Win to Nil at [2.16]
Recommended Bet: Back Italy 2-1 Correct Score at [10.0]