Jonathan Wilson: Serbia are still paying the penalty

Internationals / Jonathan Wilson / 02 September 2010 / Leave a Comment

Serbia have still not got over their controversial World Cup exit

"Serbia are [1.1] to win but given the nerves and the unease about the camp, that price is short enough to make it worth a small lay."

Serbia's elimination from the World Cup came down to a penalty shout. Two months on, Jonathan Wilson explains why the repercussions are still being felt back home. Could it really be worth laying them against the Faroe Islands?

By the end of the World Cup, Serbia had been largely forgotten. They turned up with many - me included - tipping them as dark horses after a fine qualifying campaign, and just as many - me included - pointing out that they'd qualified impressively before and failed miserably at the tournament itself. As it was, this time round, they fell into an unfamiliar grey area, neither exhilarating nor embarrassing.

Against Ghana they were deserved 1-0 losers, but the goal came from a crazily conceded penalty. They conceded another one against Germany but Vladimir Stojkovic saved it, and, after Miroslav Klose had been sent off, Serbia won 1-0. With qualification for the last 16 in their grasp, though, they lost 2-1 to Australia, and were left cursing the non-award of a penalty two minutes from time. Had it been given, and had they scored it, they would have gone through at Ghana's expense.

Whether it should have been given is another matter. The ball clearly struck Tim Cahill's arm in the centre of the box, but he was facing away from the ball, having jumped for a corner with Nemanja Vidic. His arm was upraised, just above the horizontal, and he did prevent Vidic's header returning the ball to the danger area. He certainly did not volitionally move his arm to the ball, but his arm was in an "unnatural" position; had he been blocking a cross, say, and facing the ball, that would have been enough for it to be deemed a foul.

It was, in other words, one of those decisions that could have gone either way, but it went against Serbia, as Serbs feel these things tend to. Australians who protest at the way referees penalised them during the tournament (for legitimately sending off two of their
players) conveniently forget that escape - albeit at a time when it didn't matter for them.

The repercussions of that decision, though, continue to be felt in Serbia. Radomir Antic, the Serbia coach who has been widely praised for the way he brought the side together emotionally and tactically in qualifying, reacted furiously, and his post-match remonstrations earned him a four-game touchline ban. That, in turn, led to dark hints from the Serbian Football Federation that Antic may be replaced.

"Serbia must have a coach for the first four qualifying matches," the Serbia coach Tomislav Karadzic said.

The players, though, seem united in their support of their coach. "All this surrounding Antic has been very emotional for me," Liverpool's Milan Jovanovic told the sports daily Blic. "As a player, I don't want to make any comments on some dirty business, but I do have an opinion. I am only a soldier of the national team and all these people are above me in the hierarchy - the head coach, the backroom staff, the FA officials. But I could live with not having Antic on the bench for the first four games. We are given instructions ahead of the game and know what to do out there on the pitch."

Serbia lost their first game after the World Cup 1-0 to Greece, though, which adds to the pressure when their European Championship qualifying campaign begins away to the Faroe Islands. They are [1.1] to win, which they should, and with ease, but given the nerves and the unease about the Serbia camp, that price is short enough to make it worth a small lay.

Group C is arguably the most intriguing of the Euro qualifiers, and Italy won't be relishing their trip to Estonia given recent form [Italy are [1.41] to win; the draw 4.8]. Italy are [1.6] to win the group, which seems far too short, with Serbia [3.55] and Slovenia [9.2]. Matjaz Kek's well-disciplined side, who can probably count themselves unfortunate with the draw, host Northern Ireland in Maribor, where they have never lost an international. A win [1.68] is pretty much essential if they are to have a chance of qualifying, but given both side's defensive outlook and difficulties in scoring it may be worth a look at under 2.5 goals: [1.65] might seem a little short, in which case a 1-0 [6.4] or 2-0 [7.8] home win could be the value bet.