International Football Betting: Lithuania v France

Internationals / James Eastham / 26 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

James Eastham ponders the poor state of the French national team and advises against backing Les Bleus in their World Cup qualifier in Vilnius. Best Bet: Lithuania +0.75 Asian handicap @ [2.06].

Each round of World Cup qualifiers leaves followers of France's national side torn between wanting them to win and lose.

A defeat would jeopardise the team's chances of qualifying for the 2010 finals, but might also precipitate the departure of Raymond Domenech. Les Bleus boss has somehow clung to his job since the debacle of Euro 2008, but nothing that's happened since has suggested the FFF did the right thing by leaving him in place.

France risk missing out

Serbia and Lithuania top European Group 7 on 9pts after four games, with Austria third on 4pts. France are fourth on 4pts - so, despite the fact they've played a game fewer than the three teams above them, they risk missing out on the finals. If anything, the price of [1.85] on them to win the group is too short.

The boys in blue were in a state of Euro 2008-induced shock during their autumn qualifiers. Austria duly took advantage, defeating them 3-1 in Vienna on matchday 1. Despite a 2-1 win over Serbia in their second game, France suffered a further setback when they could only draw 2-2 in Romania in October.

Since then, two disappointing home friendlies - a 0-0 draw v Uruguay and a 2-0 defeat v Argentina - have soured the mood even further. I was at the second game in Marseille and, after playing well for the first 25 minutes, France had no answer once Jonas Gutierrez's gave the visitors a 41st-minute lead.

Gourcuff looks good

The only bright note has been the emergence of Yoann Gourcuff. The Bordeaux playmaker has made such a scintillating start to international football that Domenech has been forced to change from a 4-4-2 to a 4-2-3-1 to accommodate him in what used to be the Zinedine Zidane role. The 22-year-old was man of the match on his full competitive debut against Serbia six months ago, and scored a stunning 35-yard goal to earn les Bleus parity in Bucharest.

Gourcuff claimed this week that his best performances this season have come in the blue of France - which is saying something if you've seen his Ligue 1 displays for Bordeaux. I'm surprised that he's likely to be a bigger price than Franck Ribery to score as he plays behind the striker and has exceptional shooting ability. Gourcuff's the selection to get on the scoresheet at around [5.5].

But Les Bleus are too short

There's absolutely no point in backing France at [1.66] to win away to hosts who've made such a great start in the group, though. Lithuania produced one of the performances of matchday 1 by beating Romania 3-0 in Cluj on September 6 and followed up with home victories over Austria (2-0) and the Faroes (1-0). The only dent was a 3-0 loss in Serbia - but they will feel they have a genuine chance of reaching the World Cup finals for the first time in their history.

France won 1-0 on Lithuanian soil when the sides met in a Euro 2008 qualifier in March 2007 but that game has limited relevance as nine of the Frenchmen on view that day - including 74th-minute match-winner Nicolas Anelka - will play no part this time. It took two late Thierry Henry goals for France to win the return fixture in Paris, too, so Jose Couceiro's underdogs will not be overawed.

Lithuania look too big at [2.06] with a +0.75-goal start on the Asian handicap so that's my main bet. I wouldn't talk anybody out of backing a low-scoring game, either: two of Lithuania's four games have had under 2.5 goals, and the same was true of nine of their 12 Euro 2008 qualifiers.

Likely line-ups:

Lithuania (4-4-2): Karcemarkas - Klimavicius, Dedura, Zelmikas, Stankevicius -Mikoliunas, Semberas, Pilibaitis, Cesnauskis - Ksanavicius, Danilevicius

France (4-2-3-1): Mandanda - Sagna, Gallas, Squillaci, Evra - Toulalan, L Diarra - Ribery, Gourcuff, Henry - Benzema