France v England: Here's a first - I'm backing England to win away

Internationals / Tareq Quiroz / 25 March 2008 / Leave a Comment

TQ talks us through the different betting markets as a France side decimated by injuries hosts an England side full of players eager to impress Fabio Capello

A 100% record, a friendly approachable demeanour and on the verge of giving David Beckham his deserved 100th cap. So far so good for Fabulous Fabio. On Wednesday he takes his England team to the Stade de France for one of the season's more ludicrous friendlies. It will be a tough test for Capello's England against one of Europe's superpowers.

Many of the top clubs in Europe are challenging for honours at what is a crucial stage of the season and certainly do not welcome this scheduled friendly. Whilst trying to decide how this game will pan out there will have to be some assumptions made regarding just how long players from the top clubs will play for. I expect Capello to start with his strongest team but unlike the Switzerland game you can be sure of plenty of early substitutions. France on the other hand have a massive squad of 39 to choose from for two games in two days and you can only assume that Domenech has a strong thought of experimentation in his mind ahead of Euro 2008.

Friendly games are often difficult to predict and as such are equally difficult to price up. You can see this as a sign to leave the match alone or you can see it as an opportunity to take advantage of what you think are unreflective odds. The Match Odds market has a distinct look of uncertainty and this is where we step in.

I have played this match over in my mind several times and each time I get the same disturbing result - a narrow win for England. Quick justification is needed I think. Twisted logic suggests it is actually the England players who are keener to impress that the French. The fringe French players may well play in the 'A' team game and the regulars that will turn out against England will have little to prove to Domenech. Also take into account that England are at full strength and France are missing pivotal figures such as Henry and Vieira. I can't ever remember backing England to win away but at [3.35] that is the kind of price you cannot ignore against what in all truth is a team that is not what it was.

The last meeting between these two nations was in Euro 2004 when Zidane broke English hearts with two injury time strikes to secure a 2-1 win for France. That match was the only time in the last seven meetings that there have been more than two goals in the fixture. Whilst I envisage the French having problems up front they are undoubtedly quite strong defensively and only conceded five goals in their twelve qualifiers. England's record during qualification was very similar so don't expect a goal bonanza in Paris and get on Under 2.5 Goals. Current odds are [1.64] but I recommend waiting until an hour before KO when I expect the price to drift to closer to the [1.7] mark.

Unusually at International level we have two teams that both have quality wide players. Despite dropping Young and SWP, Capello still has Joe Cole, Bentley, Downing and of course Beckham. France also have top wide players in the likes of Ribery and Malouda. All this suggest to me that these are the areas that you will see both teams try to utilise and you can expect plenty of corners. For small stakes I would take a punt on the Corners Odds market for there to be 13 or more at odds of around [3.6].

My final selection of the evening is in the Winning Margin market. If as expected the game is tight then it is always a good idea to back the 1 Goal option prior to the start of the match, fairly safe in the knowledge that at the very least it will provide a trading opportunity at some point during the game. At current odds of [2.4] it is a great bet for those of you who like to trade your positions in running.

One thing you can guarantee is that whatever the result on Wednesday night the story making the headlines the following morning will surround Beckham and his 100 caps. Beckham may or may not extend his England career beyond the Stade de France but should Fabio get the win against France he will surely be in his role for a long time to come.