Internationals / James Eastham / 18 June 2009 / Leave a comment

Host nation Sweden made a winning start to their European Under-21 Championship campaign - but Italy will pose a stiffer test than Belarus, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Sweden U21s v Italy U21s draw @ [3.3].

Sweden got their European Under-21 Championship campaign off to a magnificent start by beating Belarus 5-1 on Tuesday so they'll be full of confidence when they take on Italy in their second match on Friday afternoon (3pm kick-off UK time).

Tommy Soderborg and Jorgen Lennartsson's side had to come from behind to beat the eastern Europeans but eventually managed to win at a canter. Marcus Berg - already capped at senior international level - was star of the show for the host nation, scoring a hat-trick against opponents whose defence parted far too easily, while Gustav Svensson impressed fans with a superb 25-yard curling drive to round off the 5-1 romp

Sweden will qualify for the semi-finals if they beat Italy, but the Azzurrini will pose a far stiffer test than the Belarusians. Pierluigi Casiraghi's side started their campaign with a 0-0 draw against Serbia on Tuesday afternoon but there were a few concerns because a fine first-half performance gave way to an unsure one after the break. Mario Balotelli showed plenty of promise in forward positions but Juventus' Sebastian Giovinco missed a glorious chance to give Italy the lead in the second-half and the Italians faded late on as Serbia finished far more strongly.

Sweden will have to show they can adopt a different style of play in this game because Italy will afford them far less space than the Belarusians did and Balotelli and Giovinco will pose the Swedish back line far more problems than any of Yuri Kurnenin's players did. Yet there's no doubt the host nation have gathered a head of steam thanks to that magnificent win earlier this week and will enjoy terrific support from a crowd in excess of 10,000 at the Olympia. Italy need to win, but the pragmatism that's part of their footballing DNA suggests they wouldn't be totally unhappy with a point, knowing they've an easier game against Belarus still to come.

Sweden are [3.3], Italy [2.48] and the draw [3.3] - and the conclusion I draw from those prices is that Italy are too short. The Azzurrini have some fine players, but their performance against Serbia was nowhere near convincing enough to justify such skinny odds against a host nation who go into this match on the back of a 5-1 victory. The draw looks far too big to me , so that's my headline selection at an excellent price.