Internationals / James Eastham / 22 June 2009 / Leave a comment

After their disappointing 0-0 draw against Belarus last Friday Serbia need to beat hosts Sweden to qualify for the semi-finals - which should lead to an open encounter, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Sweden U21s v Serbia U21s over 2.5 goals @ [2.56].

What has happened to the stylish, exciting football we expected from Serbia? Two games into the tournament, we've seen only flashes of the potential that Slobodan Krcmacevic's multi-talented side has to offer.

A 0-0 draw against Italy in their opening match was far from disgraceful - particularly since Serbia dominated the second-half and had much the better chances to win the game - but a second goalless stalemate, against Belarus last Friday, was a huge disappointment. On that occasion there was a palpable lack of imagination and ingenuity in the Serbian ranks, which was all the more alarming given that Sweden had put five goals past the same opponents just three days earlier. A couple of efforts from Manchester United midfielder Zoran Tosic aside, Serbia were short of ideas.

The upshot is that they must win against host nation Sweden on Tuesday night (7.45pm kick-off UK time) to qualify for the semi-finals. Tommy Soderberg and Jorgen Lennartsson's side got off to a magnificent start with that 5-1 win over Belarus but suffered a setback when they lost 2-1 against Italy in their second game. The result was a real blow, but the hosts' co-coaches will have been hugely encouraged by the number of chances their side created (Italy goalkeeper Andrea Consigli was man of the match) and know that on a different day they could have scored enough times to earn at least a point.

Sweden's attacking qualities in that game and the fact that Serbia must win here to reach the last four increases the likelihood of an open, attacking encounter. The Swedes have scored six goals in two games but conceded and marked shoddily in both encounters, while Serbia may finally let their strikers fully off the leash as they have no choice but to win. Over 2.5 goals is available at an excellent price of [2.56].

Serbia captain Milan Smiljanic has reminded press and fans that his nation won 5-0 on Swedish soil after losing 3-0 at home in the play-offs to claim a place at the 2007 finals tournament. Memories of that fabulous win may persuade some punters to back Serbia at [2.7] but I don't think they, the Swedes ([3.05]) or the draw at [3.25] offer worthwhile value. Final group games are often exciting affairs, so over 2.5 goals is the only wager for me.