Internationals / James Eastham / 18 June 2009 / Leave a comment

Serbia may have failed to hit the target against Italy in their opening match on Tuesday - but it's difficult to see Belarus' porous defence holding out here, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Serbia U21s -1.25 Asian handicap v Belarus U21s @ [2.1].

If the opening game for each side at the European Championship finals was any sort of guide, Serbia should romp to victory against Belarus in Malmo on Friday afternoon (5.15pm kick-off UK time).

Serbia were unlucky not to beat a highly-rated Italy on Tuesday evening - the game finished 0-0 - while Belarus showed exactly why they are rank outsiders to make an impact in the tournament by being thrashed 5-1 by host nation Sweden a couple of hours later.

The eastern Europeans actually took the lead in that game thanks to a superb Sergei Kislyak drive but serious defensive flaws quickly emerged and Sweden ran out comfortable winners thanks to a Marcus Berg hat-trick and further strikes from Rasmus Elm (with the help of a deflection) and Gustav Svensson. The standard of Belarus' defending was absolutely shocking on a couple of goals - so Serbia's highly-talented side have every chance of enjoying a comfortable win.

Serbia came close to scoring the decisive goal against Italy but Gojko Kacar - who'd previously netted seven times in 11 U21 appearances - hit the post with a late overhead kick and Manchester United's Zoran Tosic placed a left-footed free-kick just wide of the post. The way Serbia finished the game - they were the stronger side in the second-half - suggests they should have no problems gaining their first win of the tournament if they carry that momentum into this match.

Serbia are [1.46] to claim three points, while Belarus are trading at [8.8] and the draw [4.7]. I wouldn't argue with those prices, as I believe Serbia are around a 65%-70% chance to win this match. The attacking power of Serbia's front three - Tosic, Kacar and Miralem Sulejmani were all excellent in patches against Italy - brings the Asian handicap into play because I can genuinely see Slobodan Krcmarovic's men winning by two or three goals. As a result, the [2.1] on Serbia with a -1.25-goal deficit looks excellent value, because you'll win if they win the match by two or more goals, and lose only half your stakes should their margin of victory be just one goal.

Backing over 2.5 goals at [1.96] is an alternative, but I'd avoid this market, since Belarus' only goal against Sweden was strike out of nothing, and it's difficult to see them producing a similar moment of brilliance once again. The attacking side of their play throughout the remainder of the match was mediocre, to say the least - so I question whether they'll be able to get on the scoresheet. That's why I prefer Serbia on the Asian handicap, as the 2-0 scoreline will be covered.