Internationals / James Eastham / 22 June 2009 / Leave a comment

The Azzurrini's 2-1 win over host nation Sweden last Friday revealed how talented Pierluigi Casiraghi's side are - and now his team can round off their group campaign with another victory, writes James Eastham. Best bet: Italy U21s v Belarus U21s over 2.5 goals @ [2.06].

Thanks to that victory over Sweden Italy are in a commanding position as they go into their final Group A match of the European Under-21 Championship against Belarus in Helsingborg on Tuesday night (7.45pm kick-off UK time). The Azzurrini sit at the top of the group on four points, ahead of Sweden on three points, Serbia on two and Belarus on one. Pierluigi Casiraghi's side could well go through even if they lose, and need only a point to be sure of a last four berth.

The key to that win against Sweden was Italy's outstanding attacking play. Inter striker Mario Balotelli scored a wonderful opening goal and Sebastian Giovinco was heavily involved in most of the side's best moves as he showed why he's considered one of the great burgeoning talents of the European game. Balotelli's red card for lashing out twice at Sweden striker Pontus Wernbloom means he will be suspended for this match, but the increasingly influential Giovinco, plus the presence of Robert Aquafresca, who scored what proved to be a crucial second goal from a corner, ought to ensure Italy get at least the point they need.

At the other end of the pitch, all is not well. Goalkeeper Andrea Consigli was man of the match against Sweden and, while the fact that Italy had to play for nearly an hour with 10 men undoubtedly contributed to the number of times Sweden were able to shoot on goal, coach Casiraghi will be worried about how easily the Azzurrini's back four was breached. Italy's uncharacteristically fragile defending will give Belarus some hope that they can create one of the biggest shocks of the tournament by getting the win they need to qualify for the semi-finals, although it must be said they have shown very little attacking quality of their own so far. They spent most of their 0-0 draw against Serbia last Friday on the back foot and, aside from a stunning early Sergei Kislyak strike that put them ahead against Sweden in their opening group game, Yuri Kurnenin's side have created very few chances.

Nevertheless, it should be an open encounter, because Italy have found their rhythm and Belarus have nothing to lose. I expect Casiraghi to oversee a second consecutive win for the Italians, but the [1.37] on the Azzurrini getting three more points has little appeal. The draw is [5.3] and Belarus [11], but looking through all the markets, over 2.5 goals is the favoured selection at [2.06] because that price looks a little too big given how the Italians are defending and that Belarus need to win. Correct-score punters ought to consider a couple of low-stakes wagers on 2-1 [9.6] and 3-1 [17] correct scorelines.