England to reach the dizzy heights of a win in Moscow?

Internationals / Editor / 16 October 2007 / Leave a Comment

Three points should virtually guarantee qualification for England but that's easier said than done

Russia v England - Euro qualifier Group E, kick-off 4pm (Live on Sky Sports 1)

Sir Alex Ferguson reckons the artificial pitch in Moscow could cause England big problems, but his former assistant Steve McClaren insists it will have no bearing on the result - and punters seem to agree.

"The problem they will have is the bounce of the ball, the speed of the ball and of course Russia will be far more used to it than English players," warned Ferguson, whose Manchester United team train on two state-of-the-art indoor synthetic pitches.

Nevertheless, England are the 2.46 favourites to win at the Luzhniki Stadium, with the Three Lions well aware that another victory will confirm their place in Austria and Switzerland next summer.

Last month's 3-0 win over Russia will have boosted confidence in the camp and among punters, but the surface has to be a factor, especially when you consider Spartak Moscow's home record in the Russian League over the last two seasons (since the surface was laid) is P 27 Won 19 Drawn 7 Lost 1.

Russia (3.35) are unbeaten at home in nine years and have conceded just one goal in their five Group E home matches (the 1-1 draw with Israel) and will surely be difficult to break down in what could be an intriguing tactical battle.

England are being tipped to pack the midfield in a freezing Moscow and Frank Lampard could get a recall, despite being booed when entering the fray as a substitute in Saturday's victory over Estonia at Wembley.

Not surprisingly, under 2.5 goals is available at just 1.69 with under 1.5 goals at 2.9, which could still represent value for some punters as England have only conceded two goals in their group games to date (the 2-0 defeat in Croatia).

However, there are injury problems at the back which could tempt some to consider the 'No' bet in the England Clean Sheet market, on offer at 1.51 ('No' for a Russian clean sheet is 1.38).

McClaren will definitely be without first-choice left-back Ashley Cole, who suffered an ankle injury on Saturday, while skipper John Terry remains a doubt with a knee problem.

England have won their last five qualifiers 3-0 and those who fancy the same scoreline for an incredible sixth time can take the 30 on offer in the Correct Score market, while 1-1 is the current favourite at 7.4. Although they have a game in hand, Russia are five points behind England (1.31 to go qualify) and McLaren is well aware that a draw of any kind (3.25) would be a good result, leaving them needing just a further point from their final game at home to Croatia, but a defeat means qualification is out of their hands.

England have been leading at half-time in their last four qualifiers, and 'England/England' in the Half Time/Full Time market is available at 4.3. It's worth noting though that England have not come from behind to win since the 3-2 friendly victory over Argentina in November 2005, and Russia/England can be backed at 32.

The First Goal Odds market suggests an opening strike could happen between 11 and 20 minutes, just as it did in England's victory on Saturday when Shaun Wright Phillips netted - he should be attractive odds in the 'First Goalscorer' market. Wayne Rooney, who grabbed his first competitive England goal since Euro 2004, and Michael Owen, who scored twice against Russia in September, should be popular in Betfair's 'To Score' market.

Giant Spartak Moscow striker Roman Pavluchenko, who has scored 13 goals in the Russian top flight this season, including two penalties, could be the dangerman for the home side - and he loves the surface!