D-Day for England. D for desperate

Internationals / Alsy / 13 November 2007 / 4 Comments

Morgan in the Driving Seat - Alister Morgan talks us through the different scenarios that may yet allow England to qualify for Euro 2008

The latest round of qualifying matches for the European Champions has stirred up familiar feelings in the national psyche. Once again our collective backs are against the wall so we English do what we English do best... evoke the spirit of Dunkirk and slate the England Coach for crimes against football.

When the teams in Group E were announced Israel, Russia, Macedonia, Andorra, Estonia and Croatia held little fear for England. Can anyone name more than three players from their respective squads? An England squad heaving with Premiership quality had nothing to fear.

Following his appointment McClaren smugly quipped, "Judge me on my record". Considering the amount of cash he spent at Middlesbrough one League Cup win and a seventh place Premiership finish in 2004, his so-called record is respectable but hardly exceptional.

Those words have come back to haunt him and irritate me as England's highly-paid 'stars' spluttered through matches like a Ferrari running on diesel but I suspect that, if qualification is missed, McClaren will ask the FA not to judge him on his England record and ask for more time.

It's all out of England's hands so all eyes look to Israel for a messiah to save the day. McClaren's best hope of qualifying is to finish ahead of Russia. For this scenario to come to fruition several things must happen.

Firstly Russia must not win in Israel this Saturday as their final game is against preverbal whipping boys Andorra. There's more chance of the FA asking Graham Taylor to replace McClaren than Andorra getting a result against Russia on the back of 28 consecutive qualifying defeats so Israel remain England's best hope of pulling a Harry Houdini .

If Russia loses to Israel, England only needs a draw at home against Croatia on November 21st to qualify. If Russia draws against Israel, England will need to defeat Croatia to go through assuming that Andorra revert to type and lose their final match to Russia.

There is one other permeation (admittedly unlikely) that could see England secure qualification if Macedonia beat Croatia at home this Saturday. If this happens a victory for England by three goals over Croatia will secure qualification. A 2-0 victory over Croatia will also see England qualify but a 3-1 victory (or any two-goal margin that includes an away goal for the opposition) would not be enough as Croatia's away goal will mean they lead the head-to-head standings between the teams.

England is [3.35] to qualify while odds on Croatia (1.03) and Russia [1.39] illustrate that the prize of qualification is within reach. With a myriad of possible outcomes it's wise to step away from the hypothetical and focus on Group E's key game between Israel and Russia. Put simply, England is doomed if Croatia and Russia win this weekend. Croatia should secure qualification and Russia will be desperate to emulate them.

With their impressive dismantling of England still fresh in the mind, Russia, [1.56] to win, is justifiably expected to beat Israel [8] with the draw [4.2]. With dangerous players like Zurianov and Kerzhakov they will create chances against Israel while Pavluchenko changed the England game in the Luznikhi stadium after coming on as a substitute.

Israel, as the home team, has a chance of victory but with no carrot of qualification dangling (Israel [120] to qualify has as much chance of winning the lottery) it's difficult to imagine a home victory.

Russia's strongest weapon is undoubtedly the master tactician coach Guus Hiddink.

McClaren's team looked to be heading for victory in Russia until key substitutions from Hiddink changed the game. This is one coach happy to be judged on his record but England does have one thing in their favour - Hiddink's players are not as experienced as their coach and may suffer from stage fright in front of a hostile crowd.

Who knows? A messiah for England may emerge from Tel-Aviv's Ramat Gan stadium after all.

To read more about the Euro 2008 Championships go to:

http://www.euroteam2008.com/?gclid=CIfymr2F2o8CFQp7PAodR1kl9Q