Confederations Cup Betting: Spain v USA

Internationals / Feizal Rahman / 23 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

The USA pulled off a Hollywood ending to reach the semi-finals but not even the bravest sciptwriter would dare to imagine them overcoming Spain, says Feizal Rahman.

In reaching their 35-game unbeaten streak and 15th consecutive win, Spain have achieved near perfection, playing a style of football most can only dream about. Their performances in this Confederations Cup have been flawless, with three wins, eight goals scored and none conceded. With 1652 passes completed, the mesmeric movement of the ball from La Roja has bemused opposition sides and, for the most part, it has been all too easy for the European Champions.

Conversely, the USA will be wondering just what they have done to deserve the ridiculously good fortune that has seen them qualify for the semi-finals of this competition. Hammered by Italy and Brazil in their first two games, the Americans required a seemingly impossible six goal turnaround with Italy in the concluding group fixtures to have any chance of progressing. Yet, an Italian surrender at the hands of Brazil and their own suspiciously convenient 3-0 win over Egypt saw Team USA pull off a Hollywood ending. Yet, not even the most fanciful scriptwriter would dare pitch a climax to this contest which would see the American underdogs overcome Spain. The match odds paint a realistic picture with Spain [1.27] to win, USA [17.0] to cause an upset and the draw at [6.4].

Spain have been victorious in all three previous meetings with the USA, most recently winning 1-0 at home in their final warm-up game before last year's successful Euro 2008 tournament. The US back line has remained consistent throughout tournament - including West Ham's Jonathan Spector and Watford's Jay DeMerit - but was responsible for leaking six goals in their first two group games against Italy and Brazil before a shutout against Egypt.

There's no reason why Spain cannot breach the American defence at least as many times as Italy and Brazil so a punt on a 3-0 scoreline at [8.8] may tempt with Any Unquoted a rare market favourite at just [5.5]. While the Asian Handicap lines offered are not the most generous, Spain -1.5 looks a safe bet at [1.9]. There's very little in the US attack that looks of any threat to the Spanish defence and a Spain clean sheet would seem more likely than the odds of [1.71] suggest. Although held to a draw at half-time in two of their three group matches, Spain should have enough to win both halves here at around [2.6].

Without doubt the deadliest strike duo in world football at present, David Villa and Fernando Torres have netted three goals each so far in this competition and it's difficult to look beyond them in the first goalscorer market. Both likely to be short at around the [4.5], those looking for slightly better value might opt for Liverpool's Albert Riera who has had a few digs on goal in his two starts and, should he make the first 11 once again, is likely to be available at around [17.0].

The Americans have had their disciplinary problems thus far - with four yellow and two red cards - and Jay DeMerit is the only member of the back four who is not on a booking. Along with Spain's four cautions picked up, the referee may be a little busy - particularly if the Americans get frustrated at not seeing any of the ball - so taking a decent price on nine points and above in the Bookings Odds market could prove profitable, once the market develops.

Another subsidiary market that may be of interest is the corners odds. In the six games these two sides have played so far, only once have there been more than nine corners (USA v Italy), so the [1.8] currently on offer for nine or less corners may appeal.

Spain should get through this match in comfortable fashion and look forward to what will likely be a final against Brazil on Sunday - which will surely provide them with their biggest test so far in their unbeaten streak. A drop in momentum here won't do the Spanish any favours ahead of that so another masterclass can be expected.