Confederations Cup Betting: New Zealand v Iraq

Internationals / Dave Farrar / 20 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

Iraq are yet to score a goal in two matches but then again they have only conceded the one, says Dave Farrar. A win at an international tournament would be priceless for the Iraqis and they may just go and get a narrow one against a hapless New Zealand....

Canada and Greece share an unwanted Confederations Cup record which could be equalled on Saturday by both New Zealand and Iraq. This competition is a chance for smaller footballing nations to test themselves against the best, and to return home without scoring a single goal would be a sign that there's still a long way to go.

Iraq have been competitive in South Africa, holding the hosts and then going down by just a single goal against Spain, while New Zealand have paid the price for a lack of quality and a certain tactical naivety: to play an attacking 4-4-2 in the that first match against Spain showed a certain degree of style for which the Kiwis should be commended, but it was never going to work and they were lucky to get away with just a five goal beating.

It's early on in games when New Zealand have looked particularly vulnerable, and that may lead to a more cautious approach against a dogged Iraqi side. Iraq will qualify for the semi finals on goal difference if they can beat New Zealand and if South Africa lose to Spain with a three goal swing and so it is tempting to think that Bora Milutinovic may adopt a more open style of play.

But I think that he'll try to make sure of winning the game, and then see where that leaves his team. A win at an international competition would be priceless for the Iraqis, and while they're short enough in the Match Odds market at [1.46], there may be a bit of value in the Correct Score market.

Given that Spain struggled to break down Iraq, and that South Africa were unable to, it seems unlikely that New Zealand will find a way through, and so you simply have to ask yourselves by how many goals Iraq will win. Only once in their unsuccessful Group Stage attempt to qualify for the 2010 World Cup did Iraq manage to score more than once, and I don't see that trend changing here, even if they might need a two goal margin to be sure of making the semi finals.

Iraq have had an average of 34% possession in their first two matches, and it's not that easy to change from that sort of defensive style to play free flowing football: I think that Iraq will get the win they need to give them hope, but that it will be yet another tight affair, decided by the odd goal.

Recommendation: Iraq to beat New Zealand 1-0 @ [6.8]