Internationals / Tobias Gourlay / 27 June 2009 / Leave a comment

Can the 999-1 shots nab the Confederations Cup? Not on Tobias Gourlay's watch...

In Pretoria on the 18th of this month, Brazil comfortably beat the USA 3-0 in the second round of group matches of the 2009 Confederations Cup. At that point, not many fancied the States - losers to Italy in their first group match - to hang around for the tournament final. £31 was traded on Betfair at odds of [1000] on the Concacaf champions winning the tournament.

What has followed so far is a win over Egypt and a heavy defeat for Italy against Brazil, which together sent the States into a semi-final with Spain, the record-breaking European champions. That match was won 2-0, and so it is that Bob Bradley's men, the first team to get out of the group stage with just three points and a negative goal difference, start Sunday's final as mere [5.1] outsiders for the tournament.

Bradley has been commended for tactics that reduced time and space for the Spanish midfielders to create chances for their strikers. His team played close to the edge, however. Jay DeMerit made three important blocks as La Furia Roja took almost 70% of possession and had more shots on target than they managed in their 5-0 victory over New Zealand.

Remember also that Spain have been at this tournament without Andrés Iniesta, whose energetic bursts eventually did for a Chelsea team that also sat its midfield on top of its defence in order to stifle more gifted opposition.

Jozy Altidore, scorer of one of the USA's goals against Spain, was an odd signing for Villarreal last summer - it is hard to imagine the hulking striker fitting into a system that is catalysed by fleetness of thought and foot from Santi Cazorla, Giuseppe Rossi and their ilk - but his hard work is noteworthy. He made a nuisance of himself against Carles Puyol and Gerard Piqué and might be capable of the same against a wispy Brazil defence that must do without Juan, the injured first-choice centre-half.

The Seleção, who are unbeaten in 2009 and have won eight of their last nine competitive matches, start as [1.44] favourites to overcome their limited opponents. They are [1.24] to lift the trophy by any means.

After scoring 10 times in their three group-stage games, the South American champions were made to wait until the 88th-minute for the only goal of their semi-final with South Africa. The host nation were determined to allay fears that they might become the worst World Cup hosts ever next year, while the USA's victory over Spain the previous day might have persuaded Brazil that the trophy was already theirs. Perhaps the closeness of this result will have knocked the complacency out of Carlos Dunga's team.

If Brazil win on Sunday, they will move ahead of France on to three tournament victories. Four years ago, the 'Magic Quartet' produced a 4-1 win over Argentina in the final that raised false hopes of a strong showing at the 2006 World Cup. In 1997, Australia were thumped 6-0 in the first ever Confederations Cup. In between, there was a 4-3 final defeat to Mexico in 1999. The Any Unquoted Correct Score is available at [7.2] for this match. Those with tighter belts would perhaps like to consider Over 2.5 Goals at [1.99].

Esoteric bettors might be interested by the [3.30] available for there to be a red card in the final. It has happened in two of five previous finals - to Mark Viduka in 1997 and João Carlos of Brazil in 1999 - and the Americans have finished three of their four games at this tournament so far with 10 men.

This column, however, will concentrate on the Asian handicap, where Brazil -1.5 Goals are on offer at [2.24]. Dunga has found a system that allows Kaka and Robinho to flourish, while the team as a whole remains balanced. The States' performance against Spain was not necessarily a strong defensive one, but, more specifically, a strong last-ditch defensive one. Will they be fortunate enough to overcome the concession of 70% of possession again and 11 Brazilian shots on goal? It seems unlikely.